This market is about the following unverified claims, which have been disputed by others:
Resolves YES if all of the following specific claims prove true, as judged by reliable media reporting:
The FDIC is already on site at First Republic Bank trying to determine the best path forward to protect depositors.
Confirmed just now that First Republic started throttling outbound wires today [Saturday March 12]. Also by the end of the day today (Saturday) they stopped processing wires altogether.
You can submit wires on Saturday and they are processed Monday. They stopped accepting any wire requests for Monday today [Saturday]
Resolves NO if any of them are proven false.
Otherwise, if the accuracy of any of the statements remains unclear and it appears they will likely remain unverifiable for the forseeable future, resolves N/A.
Related questions
π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ67 | |
| 2 | αΉ4 | |
| 3 | αΉ2 | |
| 4 | αΉ1 | |
| 5 | αΉ0 |
That tweet thread is now deleted.
Comments from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35117132 with supporting evidence that nothing changed about wires:
"The previous wording when trying to wire out of First Republic on Saturday is 'wire will be sent first thing Monday'. Now the wording changed to 'thank you for your transaction we'll get back to you'"
That was not the previous wording, and the wording did not change. (I just verified this myself.) If this was true, a screenshot proof would be easy to provide, but none was given.
Iβm a first republic member. Just sent a wire to my other account at another institution. Nothing seemed out of the ordinary. I did it on the phone app as usual. It said the funds would be in the other account 3/13.
Based on 20 minutes of research, I think he's totally willing to lie. But sometimes the truth happens to suit his interests - when things are so fluid I think there's a >10% chance!
You can see my emotional journey from "never heard of him" to "oh dear god why" in this thread: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-first-republic-bank-be-shut-do#PKKgDzHQYCqYcsfuw3Pg