I can’t vouch for his previous reputation, but it seems like he is making a pretty verifiable statement further in the thread, so unless he cares 0% about his ongoing credibility I don’t see why he would be anything but truthful

predicted YES

Sorry; not sure what happened with the Twitter link above (my first time embedding tweets here from mobile)

predicted NO

@MatthewRitter I’m gonna sell my NO shares just because of uncertainty about this whole situation. The whole community context twitter thing saying the opposite of what this guy is saying makes me doubt the whole thing

predicted YES

@DylanSlagh Yeah, I’ve just been doing more research and I’m coming around to your opinion. I am not sure what I’m going to do with my bet, of course just because some evidence is weakening doesn’t mean the opposite is necessarily true.

predicted YES

I will say, as someone who is primarily on this site because it rewards epistemological honesty, I think we can all agree that Mike Alfred it’s pretty terrible, even (like a stopped clock) potentially accurate on occasion.

predicted NO

predicted YES

Reminder to self: When big institutions are involved, it always takes longer than you think! (But can happen pretty rapidly when it does; think Poisson process)