Will First Republic Bank be shut down by the FDIC this month? | Manifold Markets

closes Apr 2

Silicon Valley Bankruptcy (SVB)

Will First Republic Bank be shut down by the FDIC this month?

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Dylan Slaghbought Ṁ0 of NO

Is there a relieving reason why these two markets should be different? https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-first-republic-be-seized-by-th?r=RHlsYW5TbGFnaA

@MCMillennium This guy is a total fraud. Zero credibility.

Matthew Ritteris predicting YES at 20%

I can’t vouch for his previous reputation, but it seems like he is making a pretty verifiable statement further in the thread, so unless he cares 0% about his ongoing credibility I don’t see why he would be anything but truthful

Matthew Ritteris predicting YES at 20%

Sorry; not sure what happened with the Twitter link above (my first time embedding tweets here from mobile)

Dylan Slaghis predicting NO at 20%

@MatthewRitter I’m gonna sell my NO shares just because of uncertainty about this whole situation. The whole community context twitter thing saying the opposite of what this guy is saying makes me doubt the whole thing

Matthew Ritteris predicting YES at 20%

@DylanSlagh Yeah, I’ve just been doing more research and I’m coming around to your opinion. I am not sure what I’m going to do with my bet, of course just because some evidence is weakening doesn’t mean the opposite is necessarily true.

Matthew Ritteris predicting YES at 20%

I will say, as someone who is primarily on this site because it rewards epistemological honesty, I think we can all agree that Mike Alfred it’s pretty terrible, even (like a stopped clock) potentially accurate on occasion.

Jackis predicting NO at 13%

Anton bought Ṁ10 YES from 15% to 17%

Anton sold Ṁ10 YES from 17% to 15%

Jonathan Ray created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 15%

Jf P bought Ṁ15 NO at 17%

Jonathan Ray filled limit order Ṁ21/Ṁ500 YES at 17% (cancelled)

Jonathan Ray bought Ṁ5 YES from 13% to 14%

Jack bought Ṁ100 NO from 16% to 13%

Anton bought Ṁ10 YES from 14% to 16%

Anton sold Ṁ31 NO from 13% to 14%

Dan bought Ṁ100 NO from 16% to 13%

Jack bought Ṁ400 NO from 39% to 16%

Anton bought Ṁ10 YES from 37% to 39%

Kevin Burke bought Ṁ10 NO from 38% to 37%

Jonathan Ray filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 YES at 20%

Jack bought Ṁ40 NO from 45% to 38%

Bolton Bailey sold Ṁ4 YES from 46% to 45%

Jack bought Ṁ50 NO from 57% to 46%

S G sold Ṁ23 NO from 51% to 57%

brp bought Ṁ100 YES from 28% to 51%

brp bought Ṁ10 YES from 25% to 28%

Bolton Bailey bought Ṁ10 YES from 23% to 25%

Chris Billington bought Ṁ50 YES from 13% to 23%

Dylan Slagh filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 16%

Jack bought Ṁ200 NO from 22% to 13%

Anton bought Ṁ25 NO from 24% to 22%

Jonathan Ray bought Ṁ30 YES from 17% to 24%

Anton bought Ṁ25 NO from 18% to 17%

S G bought Ṁ50 NO from 21% to 18%

Kevin Burke bought Ṁ30 NO from 23% to 21%

Dylan Slagh sold Ṁ42 NO from 20% to 23%

Jonathan Ray bought Ṁ10 YES from 17% to 20%

Jack bought Ṁ200 NO from 36% to 17%

Dylan Slagh bought Ṁ10 NO from 38% to 36%

Odoacre bought Ṁ25 NO from 40% to 38%

Odoacre sold Ṁ19 YES from 46% to 40%

Odoacre bought Ṁ20 YES from 40% to 46%

Ryan Bennett filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ30 YES at 40%

Chris Billington bought Ṁ20 YES from 25% to 34%

mjman bought Ṁ30 YES from 14% to 25%

Matthew Ritter bought Ṁ11 YES from 11% to 14%

Mike sold Ṁ10 YES from 14% to 11%

Jonathan Ray created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 10%

jackson polack sold Ṁ18 YES from 21% to 14%

jackson polack bought Ṁ10 YES from 17% to 21%

jackson polack bought Ṁ10 YES from 13% to 17%

Mike bought Ṁ10 YES from 10% to 13%

S G bought Ṁ100 NO from 16% to 10%

Dylan Slagh sold Ṁ12 NO from 15% to 16%

Dan bought Ṁ1 NO at 15%

jackson polack bought Ṁ10 NO from 16% to 15%

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