Will Manifold implement private markets in 2023?

690Ṁ39k

resolved May 19

Resolved

YES

ALL

Currently, you can turn off "Publicly listed", but this is different than private because the market is still visible in your portfolio page, the API, and several other places. It means "less advertised" rather than "private".

Resolves YES if private markets are supported at any point in 2023 (even if they are later removed). Otherwise NO.

Here private market will be defined as a market that are only accessible to invited users, only accessible with the link, etc. (In the event this is unclear, I will judge based on discussion with other authors and the Manifold team.)

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Private groups (which contain private markets) now exist. That should be sufficient for YES resolution I believe - anyone believe otherwise?

predictedYES

@jack I agree this is sufficient. I sent my M$1 to Steve the day they came out!

Summarizing the thread below: Right now unlisted markets are getting close to satisfying the resolution criteria of only-by-the-link access, except they are still accessible from group listings and portfolio listings at least.

Resolves YES. Unlisted markets are now not supposed to be findable except having the link. Someone can post a link to the market in a comment or post and it will be publicly accessible, but you mention that link-accessibility is enough.

predictedYES

@Mira Can you confirm whether they are also hidden from the API?

predictedYES

@jack The following market is unlisted:

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-gallups-poll-on-americas-most

There are 4 places it might be accessible: Directly, in a group, via search, and via the bets API.

Directly: It's accessible in the API when calling "get market by slug" or "get market by id". This seems allowed as "accessible with link".

Group: It is accessible in group market listing. @ian said this was a bug and is being fixed. So maybe wait a bit after all.

Search: It is not accessible in search, either on site or via API.

Bets: I didn't test the /v0/bets API, but I do see a split on "getPublicBets" in the code if no contract is provided. So it shouldn't find bets from private contracts.

@Mira I also realized I can see unlisted markets via others' bets, e.g. you can go to my profile and see that I bet on that market you linked above.

predictedYES

@ian If it showing up in group listings and portfolio listings is changed, then it seems like it would be "only-by-the-link" accessibility and would therefore count.

predictedYES

I think unlisted is becoming something quite different than it used to be. Not sure it's a good idea to do that vs to make a new mode (public/unlisted/private). The policy of unlisting markets makes sense if they are non-promoted but still visible, it doesn't make as much sense if they're private. https://help.manifold.markets/community-guidelines - "eg. the Fantasy football tournament markets." - those shouldn't be private!