Will Manifold add multiple choice with answers summing to a fixed number other than 1 by end of October?
24
430แน€15k
resolved Nov 1
Resolved
NO

Currently the answers in a multiple choice question are mutually exclusive, they must sum to 100%. There are many questions where I'd like to have them either sum to a different number (e.g. "Which movies will be nominated for Oscars Best Picture" where 10 answers will be selected) or not be forced to sum to a specific number at all (e.g. "Will Starship next launch before <August/September/October/November>?" or "Which countries will join NATO this year?"). This question is about the former.

Resolves YES if there's an option for answers in a multiple choice market to add to a fixed number other than 1 by the date in the title (even if it is later removed). It must be supported in the Manifold interface for regular users (API support alone does not count, admin-only support does not count).

If the market allows each answer to be completely independent, that does not qualify, since it does not sum to a fixed answer other than 1. (This would be amazing as well, but it doesn't give the automatic arbitrage / market-making that you get when it sums to a fixed number, so it's different.)

This is one of the features that Manifold has said they plan for multiple choice:

  • Adding new answers (Done!)

  • Sell button (Done!)

  • An option for independent answers that don't sum to 100%, and/or answers that sum to something other than 100%.

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