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Will he get it back???

Removing Isaac's badge would mean completely going back on everything that was said here https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-manifold-deem-bte-unworthy-of#pZEcsEV2R9OlGMNWw6Qt

@xyz We've decided to remove it.

Reasons:
-Buying a bunch of API keys to use those accounts to to farm bonuses and transfer profits, it a huge level higher than anyone else has done by making a few alts. Even if he was transparent about it, he still did it and use that mana to buy shares in the WnM market.
-Isaac's overall handling of the WnM market as a creator was poor. We want users to be able to interact with trustworthyish markets and not have to worry about the creator's motives.

@DavidChee I understand the bonus farming but what was poor about his handling of WvM as creator?

@xyz The debacle about the resolution criteria first and foremost, I thought, was very (at best) careless of him. From what I've seen many people to this day feel like it was handled very dishonestly and the changes and 'clarifications' always, or mostly, favored him. If the 00 hash came in early Isaac definitely would've won after all the shenanigans. Minnows were saved by pure luck and Isaac pulling his ace too early.

Secondly I think him blocking people whenever they would bring harsh but still relatively valid in most traders' eyes criticisms. I myself am blocked by him to this day after calling his bot farms and market making tactics 'vile'. That definitely soured how people viewed that him and his market(s) by proxy.

Both of these points I think very fairly point to him not being all that trustworthy in terms of objective market crafting and resolutions. Not to mention the already brought up point of using those API keys to artificially bloat the WvM Minnow side after all his debating about the use of bot accounts on that market. Just a blatantly two-faced approach.

@xyz hiding comments from random ppl from the other side. Some very much justifiable, but others not at all. He was supposed to be handing off ownership of the market so he can remain an unbiased trader, yet still took advantage of this functionality which left a lot of people feeling frustrated.

Also, the initial ambiguous closing criteria led him to make arguments in Discord to extend the closing date for as long as possible to align with his own interests. This wasn't handled particularly poorly and wouldn't merit removing the badge. But it did leave a lot of confusion and bad taste in many bettors mouths and so does contribute in a small way to the decision.

I think these 2 points though are a much lesser part of the reason compared to the API key stuff.

@xyz His decisions about extending the close date of the market were widely criticized as not reflecting an impartial reading of the stated market criteria. Although some conflict of interest is allowed, he showed poor judgment by investing so heavily into a market while assigning himself the subjective task of ruling on alts -- especially where the alt exclusion wasn't even in the market initially. This contributed to a loss of confidence by the community that he would resolve fairly.

@SG okay buying this up to 95%

When Isaac admitted he had a gambling addiction and Manifold refunded him $25,000 of his Mana purchases and left him with a 2.5 million Mana negative balance, I hoped for the sake of his mental health that the negative balance would force him to take some time away from the site. And in some sense, that negative balance is money owed to Manifold, so I assumed he would have to start from scratch on a new account with the same 1,000 Mana as everyone else.

Instead, he transferred 250,000 Mana, seemingly obtained via farming Manifold referrals and unique trader bonuses with his hundreds of alts, and/or stashed outside of his main account as an insurance policy for the event his balance went negative, to IsaacKing2, "An alt account of Isaac King, for actions that require a positive balance," and continues to actively trade.

I have flirted with Manifold addiction before and know it can be difficult, and I have nothing against Isaac personally, but I think Manifold is setting a bad precedent. He was clearly violating the spirit of the rule banning bonus farming using alt accounts. But more importantly, people might now think they can make a large mana purchase to bet on all all-or-nothing whalebait market and then if they lose the bet, the worst that happens is they ask for a refund and fall back on some mana stashed in another account. This encourages other people to engage in much riskier gambling and buy more Mana than they can afford. His balance should be zeroed out, alts locked, and Trustworthy-ish badge removed.

@ahalekelly Agreed. Buying this up to 90%.

@ahalekelly Disagree. Trustworthy ish badge isn't a sign of your character, it's a marker of whether you resolve markets correctly. Isaac is probably the most reliable and accurate market resolver on this site, and it would be a perversion of the concept of a trustworthy ish badge to strip it from him.

imo the balance big whales won from the market should be zeroed (even though it's 2/3 of my profit), but i don't think that's gonna happen

@Mira That was faster than I expected. I saw in Discord someone posted a bug where some of Isaac's markets were unlisted but visible somewhere.

So why were the markets unlisted? I recognized one as an ordinary politics link that I still had a link to. I checked, and it was one of Isaac's bonus-farmed markets: Maybe 10 real traders and 200 fake ones generating max liquidity. So the admins had to intervene and unlist a bunch of markets. They're probably draining the liquidity out of them before relisting them. And they didn't get every market, so it was probably a manual effort sorting for the most egregious cases.

If you make admins do work like that, that means they're taking it seriously. Nobody wants to clean up a mess by digging through someone's markets and unlisting them. So, along with everything else, it raised my probability of this actually happening.

I left the overconfident-sounding comment here to trigger notifications and hence trading activity on the market to gather information, but I honestly didn't expect 3 admins to show up seconds later and immediately confirm.

@xyz The existence of serious violations of site rules for personal financial gain gives reason to be concerned that someone might violate site norms about market resolution for personal financial gain.

I think at least those, who are from lesswrong, will agree: attempts to silent and ban opposing opinions is not a trustworthy behaviour.

Also calling opponents "not good faith" instead of discussing the topic itself is hilarious.

@KongoLandwalker

@ZZZZZZ Lets not forget the explicitly intentional rule breaking, where he purchased and used 170 API keys to buy his markets and farm unique trader bonuses.

Or, the regretful purchase of $30k USD mana to feed an addiction. Not his fault about the addiction, and manifold should have had safeguards to prevent that level of spending. Although, an addict is not trustworthy. The win-at-all-costs attitude and addiction to gathering mana cause this guy real financial stress and mental anguish (he bought his own suicide stock). He can’t be trusted.

@Gen well said.

eaforum

Isaac when he needs money from EA's

Isaac not even 24 hours later

@Gen those are not mutually exclusive statements. He was suggesting in the FB post that other people purchase Mana (and then as they are EA minded, could donate it). In his manifold comment, he is talking about his personal plans for his mana.

@RobertCousineau Yeah, I'll be honest this isn't really a big deal at all, just funny as hell. It's only really evidence that he will always act in a way that is self-interested. Like exploiting the ~180 zombie accounts for more mana, it's just an example that he will do whatever it takes to get mana.

Isaac caught in yet ANOTHER big lie! As with every other time Isaac is caught lying on his markets, his response:

1. Ignore the accusation - that he is falsely blaming a lack of volunteers for delaying delegating decisionmaking to a tribunal, when really, he delayed until AFTER the most crucial decision was made (regarding the close date)

2. Post questions that are easily answered that someone would look silly to ignore

3. Make it as snarky as possible

4. Block the person you are asking, so that they cannot respond! Another embarrassing display of fragility and another clear effort to hide the truth & manipulate the market. Does this man care about anything but mana? The truth must be known!

@Gen

Issacs stance prior to making the most important decision himself

@Gen who did @IsaacKing block and why?

@ZZZZZZ The following people were all blocked because of their engagement with the WvM market:
@MarcusAbramovitch @Gen @Catnee @PatMyron @tornado @KongoLandwalker

I encourage them to share their own reasons for their block if Isaac even had the decency to provide one.

Everyone was unblocked, with the threat "Sure, done. If they use this opportunity to post any comment I deem even slightly inappropriate, they're getting re-blocked immediately and for a much longer duration than I was originally planning."

I was re-blocked for making the statement pictured in the comment you replied to.

He has since categorised it as an attempt to "try to start flame wars in my [Isaac's] comment section", along with other snarky comments including stating that "I even gave them another chance by unblocking them below and they chose to squander it." in reference to me having the gall to prove him a liar on his own market (again) as seen in the aforementioned picture

Other reasons for the blocks vary, although his favourite reasons to threaten/enact blocks are "spam" or "telling lies", the latter of which directly translates to "having an opinion that could be damaging to Isaac's desired outcome". You will find Catnee on that list, presumably for hurting Isaac's feelings with this post. I don't know for sure though.

You can read more about my original block below. He stated that it was for "making an unambiguously false statement". Or at least, he warned me for this and then blocked me for off-site reasons, when I verified via discord poll that my statistic was in fact accurate. Either he was upset by something I said or was afraid of the embarrassment if I were allowed to share publicly that his threat to block me was in fact for false reasons. He claims that, "the wording of the poll is highly asymmetric", and therefore even though my statement was factually correct, he rejects it for other reasons. To Isaac, the truth is whatever serves his goals.

It appears that Isaac believes that the comment section of the market solely belongs to him. However, considering the active participation of numerous traders in the market, such a belief seem egocentric and unjustified.

@Gen Regarding my block:

My follow up poll. I was blocked afterwards, prior to commenting on his market.

@Gen Another public poll on the manifold discord server. One of my personal favourites. Isaac is of course the single thumbs up. I take it the low engagement on the poll is due to people without a full understanding not wanting to vote. Also please note only two of the "no" votes on this poll are from people who were also blocked - I haven't sent it around like I so obviously could do, to sway the votes by getting support from other blocked people.

@Gen do you consider this behavior to be something manifold admins would revoke the badge for, or is this more a character judgement (and therefore your goal is to show he is more likely to act in an actually revocation worth manner prior to close)?

@RobertCousineau It is in direct contradiction to the purpose of the badge. The behaviour is both a detriment to the site, and evidence of an extremely poor character.

I understand now that the primary purpose of the badge is a moderation ability to resolve markets, which I do not believe Isaac should be trusted with. He has proven himself incapable of acting impartial when his own mana is involved. It's exaggerated here, as he is risking >1million, but willingness to lie for mana here suggests that it's always a present consideration when he's evaluating how to approach a situation. Lies, manipulation, and leveraging power (albeit the small amount of power held through blocks, maker status, and his trustworthy badge) to maximise his EV. I wouldn't want those traits in someone who holds the badge, and I would absolutely not want Isaac resolving markets with his/my mana in them (or anyone else he holds animosity towards) as I do not believe he would do so fairly.

Please see my other responses directed at Isaac contained at the bottom of this thread. His response (and conduct being discussed) is fairly inappropriate, and embarrassing for someone manifold has selected as a representative of the site with special privileges.