Will I test positive for Covid in 2022?

Question

Resolves YES if I test positive on any rapid or PCR test, unless I believe it was a false positive due to follow-up testing. NO if not. N/A if I think it's too ambiguous for some reason (e.g. if I feel sick and want to test but can't get one)

Some context on myself:
- I rapid test whenever I feel sick or I suspect significant chance of infection, but don't regularly test otherwise. I have a stock of rapid tests available at home.
- Vaxxed and boosted
- I have not tested positive in the past, and have no strong reason to believe I have gotten Covid in the past.
- I currently work in the office 5 days/week. I do not wear a mask in the office. I did ask building management about MERV ratings and ventilation and was satisfied with their answers. I worked from home when Covid prevalence was elevated during the Omicron surge.
- I regularly wore N95s and P100s in January (during Omicron surge) but have rarely felt the need to wear a mask recently (post-surge).
- I regularly have medium-sized social gatherings at home. I have enough air purifiers to provide ~5 ACH.
- I currently dine indoors occasionally but prefer outdoor dining if it isn't inconvenient.

More details on my approach to covid can be found at https://firstsigma.github.io/covid

I suspect the "average" person would be surprised at how some of my choices appear very cautious and others very incautious. The way I approach the decision-making is very focused on cost-benefit, and the end goal roughly boils down to "maximize the integral of quality-of-life over my entire life" and I think these tradeoffs approximately reflect that. I also change my behavior a ton based on the current covid prevalence levels since that massively impacts the risks.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Jul 3, 2022 by Manifold Markets prediction market.

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