Will I request any of my markets to be un-resolved or re-resolved in 2023?
5
122
130
resolved Jul 3
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if in 2023, I request the resolution of any of my markets to be undone. Otherwise NO.

Manifold recently added the ability to re-resolve or un-resolve markets, which is great because it allows us to correct incorrect resolutions. There are many common causes for mistakes, including accidentally hitting the wrong button, or resolving based on a misinterpretation of news/data, or resolving based on a news/data that turns out to be wrong and is later corrected.

Additionally, I believe it is generally a good idea to make a "preliminary" early resolution when it becomes almost certain that the resolution criteria have been met, knowing that there is a very small chance that it will later turn out incorrect. As an example, markets on who will win an election are typically resolved when a decision desk calls it, but these calls are typically incorrect about 0.1% of the time - which means statistically it's fairly likely for at least one election market to end up resolved wrong, assuming it was supposed to resolve to the actual election result. But waiting for the election results to be officially certified would introduce a huge delay. So it's typical to resolve based on the calls - and if the call turns out to be wrong it can be re-resolved later. (Of course, the basis for resolution should be well-specified, if it says it will resolve based on calls then that's what it should resolve to even if the call was wrong.)

In general, I think if the outcome becomes nearly certain, it's usually good to resolve instead of waiting and keeping people's mana locked up, and re-resolve in the unlikely case of an unexpected change.

I will not intentionally manipulate this market.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ178
2Ṁ38
3Ṁ27
Sort by:

So tempted to bet YES and then resolve this market NO.

Does this apply to your recommendation resolution of my Texas market 🤪

@PhatFree Lol, it would not