Will fixed-payout multi choice markets be supported before July?
resolved Jun 13

Resolves YES if Manifold supports creating fixed-payout multiple-choice or free-response markets before then. Otherwise NO.

Currently, multiple choice and free-resonse markets use the Dynamic Parimutuel (DPM) market mechanism. The downsides of this mechanism have been well documented on Manifold, including that later trades as the outcome becomes more clear can effectively eat into the profits of earlier trades, and that there is no support for predicting NO on a specific outcome.

There's already a proposal for how to replace DPM markets with multiple linked binary markets: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Multi-set-of-binary-markets-8bd7ad1fde074e67b75bc1dd65f9a59a and https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Multi-set-of-binary-markets-8bd7ad1fde074e67b75bc1dd65f9a59a

Resolution details:

  • Resolves YES even if they are implemented and then removed later.

  • Resolves YES even if it is only supported for one of multiple choice or free response, but not the other.

  • Resolves YES even if it is simply a grouping of binary markets that have no market mechanism linkage, but are created and displayed together. In my opinion, this already delivers most of the value, and having market mechanism that e.g. keeps mutually exclusive options summing to 1 is bonus. (There is a small chance that this criteria could be somewhat subjective, I will ask a resolution council to resolve if there is ambiguity.)

  • Only support after the creation date of this market counts. This was already supported and removed in late 2022 with Multi-CPMM markets (that mechanism was removed because it had some issues that led liquidity to go to almost zero over time).

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bought Ṁ2,000 of YES

Just announced!

New Multiple Choice is live!!

  • Fixed payout mechanism implemented with multiple binary CPMMs plus arbitrage

  • Bet YES or NO on any answer

  • Full limit order support


predicted NO

@jack Sweet