1
Will fixed-payout multi choice markets be supported before July?
17
closes Jul 1
86%
chance

Resolves YES if Manifold supports creating fixed-payout multiple-choice or free-response markets before then. Otherwise NO.

Currently, multiple choice and free-resonse markets use the Dynamic Parimutuel (DPM) market mechanism. The downsides of this mechanism have been well documented on Manifold, including that later trades as the outcome becomes more clear can effectively eat into the profits of earlier trades, and that there is no support for predicting NO on a specific outcome.

There's already a proposal for how to replace DPM markets with multiple linked binary markets: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Multi-set-of-binary-markets-8bd7ad1fde074e67b75bc1dd65f9a59a and https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Multi-set-of-binary-markets-8bd7ad1fde074e67b75bc1dd65f9a59a

Resolution details:

  • Resolves YES even if they are implemented and then removed later.

  • Resolves YES even if it is only supported for one of multiple choice or free response, but not the other.

  • Resolves YES even if it is simply a grouping of binary markets that have no market mechanism linkage, but are created and displayed together. In my opinion, this already delivers most of the value, and having market mechanism that e.g. keeps mutually exclusive options summing to 1 is bonus. (There is a small chance that this criteria could be somewhat subjective, I will ask a resolution council to resolve if there is ambiguity.)

  • Only support after the creation date of this market counts. This was already supported and removed in late 2022 with Multi-CPMM markets (that mechanism was removed because it had some issues that led liquidity to go to almost zero over time).

Related markets

Will this market be the bet with largest amount of currency bet in total of all the markets I create this month (june 2022)?39%
On what day of the month will this market resolve?17
Will a prime number of markets be created this year?12%
When will there be a prediction market where payouts are pegged to a passive investment roughly comparable to sitting in a Vanguard index fund?
Will this market resolve?99%
Will the first serious market creator to die ensure their outstanding markets get resolved?13%
This market resolves yes on Jun 1598%
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2024? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)88%
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2024? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)95%
Will the linked market be accurate at time of resolution?42%
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)50%
How will this market be resolved?
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)76%
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)47%
Will the linked market ever resolve?43%
Will the number of people who like this market be more than the number of people who bet yes?36%
Will my most popular market this year be self-resolving?37%
Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)86%
Will manifold allow traders to hold both YES and NO shares for the same market at the same time?10%
Will any of my current or future "WEIRD doomsday" markets resolve to YES by 2030?72%