Resolves YES if EU natural gas prices reach at least $141.64 USD per Million Metric British Thermal Unit (MMBtu) for any month in 2023 according to data at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNGASEUUSDM. Otherwise NO.

$141.64 comes from multiplying $5 USD per 1 cubic meter by 28.3278 m3 per MMBtu (see conversion factors here).

(I hope I got the math right here, let me know if I made any errors.)

For reference, the most recent data point is $20.80 per MMBtu for October 2022.

Note that this data source provides monthly average prices across the EU, which might not be exactly what Medvedev meant, but that's what happens when one writes unclear predictions!

Context: Prediction for 2023 made by Dmitry Medvedev: