Will Covid cases increase >5% next week?
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resolved Jun 22
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Will the 7-day moving average of new Covid cases on 6/17 be more than 5% higher than the 7-day moving average on 6/10? Resolves based on data at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailycases. The 7-day moving average for 6/10 is 108,548, so resolves YES if for 6/17 it's >113,975, NO otherwise.
Background: Covid cases appear to have plateaued over the last ~3 weeks based on case count data as well as wastewater data. (See my previous market https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-current-covid-surge-peak-i.) Will cases trend upward, downward, or remain at this plateau?
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@ZviMowshowitz predicted +7% week-over-week increase on 6/9 -- https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/covid-6-9-22-nice/