Resolves YES if multiple reliable media publications report that Chinese military ships entered Taiwan's territorial waters (extending 12 nautical miles from its coastline) in August.
Chinese aircraft entering Taiwan's territorial airspace will have no bearing on a positive resolution of this market (see https://manifold.markets/jack/will-chinese-military-aircraft-ente for a question about that)
Background:
China sends warships to surround Taiwan amid Pelosi visit
Experts raised alarms over the exercise, with some noting that the drills would overlap with Taiwan’s territorial waters. M. Taylor Fravel, director of the MIT Security Studies Program, said the drills appear to be “unprecedented,” noting that they would be “the largest number of exercises to be conducted very close to the island of Taiwan itself, and the first to take place on all sides surrounding Taiwan.
~ https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/02/pelosi-lands-in-taiwan-00049234
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Resolves NO
There are no indications that any Chinese military aircraft or warships have gone within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan’s main island, though the PLA did designate live-fire zones inside the 12-mile boundary for drills it conducted earlier this month.