Resolves YES if in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire, there are more votes cast for "ceasefire" than for any one of Joe Biden, Dean Phillips, or Marianne Williamson, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise NO. (To be clear, that means if "ceasefire" gets more votes than Williamson but fewer than Philips, for example, that's a YES.)
Resolves NO if there are no reliable media reports on the subject. Resolves N/A if it is unclear, and there are reliable media reports that state uncertainty about whether this criteria is satisfied.
Context: https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/18/politics/new-hampshire-biden-write-in-campaign/index.html
Biden did not register for the New Hampshire ballot following an internal party dispute over the date of the primary and the Democratic National Committee’s decision that the election effectively won’t count.
That’s left the state’s Democratic establishment trying to spread the word about an unofficial campaign to write in Biden’s name
there’s also a last-minute effort encouraging voters to write in “ceasefire” as a protest against Biden from the pro-Palestinian wing of the party.
1,000
3.00@SemioticRivalry Commented below, there are some untabulated votes, waiting for info on how many and whether we can safely call this.
'Ceasefire' got 1497 write-ins, which (albeit surprisingly many) is not even close to Biden (78,174), Phillips (24,326), or Williamson (5,716).
Resolves NO?
@dgga Thanks for the links.
The article says "A small number of votes have yet to be tabulated." Can we confirm that the number of untabulated votes is less than 5716 - 1497?
This market was featured in a community note: https://twitter.com/BreeNewsome/status/1750178601952018709
Let's say the same proportion of remaining write-ins are split between Biden and "other-writeins" - currently 12.2% "other".
That's ~3000 "Other write-ins". If a little over half of those are "ceasefire", then Marianne Williamson gets beat. Is that reasonable? I have no idea, but I believe there's a >3% chance there's 1500 people in NH willing to write-in ceasefire.
I have no idea if that'll even be reported, but I think this market is too low.
