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MANIFOLD
Will Biden's election polling drop at least 3% the month after the classified document report?
14
Ṁ250Ṁ6.4k
resolved Mar 14
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Biden's polling average on RCP's Trump vs Biden polls for March 8 is at least 3% lower than for Feb 8 (which is showing as 43.9%).

Context: Feb 8 was the release of Special Council Hur's report on Biden's classified documents handling, which concluded that no charges are warranted but portrayed him as "a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory". https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/08/biden-classified-documents-charges-special-counsel-00140509

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Their graph shows March 7 at 45.8%, which is actually up 1.9%. So this is almost surely a NO, but waiting for March 8 data to show up.