Resolves YES if Biden or his campaign officially announces he is withdrawing or suspending his campaign for 2024 US President, by the end of the last day of the Democratic National Convention (scheduled for August 22). Any circumstances that force his withdrawal (e.g. death) count as YES as well. Otherwise resolves NO.
1,000
3.00
I have a lot of money in on Biden dropping out across many markets. I just can’t believe they won’t come to their senses and apply more pressure until he gives in. I’m confident polling (and donations) will not improve and likely get worse the more they dig in, then the tide will turn. We shall see.
RBG didn’t. Feinstein didn’t. Pelosi hasn’t.
If there’s anything we’ve learned about the baby boomer generation, it’s that they’re fundamentally incapable of even the slightest selfless act, let alone letting go of power.
They don’t have “senses” to come to, they only have greed, lust, resentment, and pride.
Note that this is very close but not exactly the same as https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n because of things like: Biden could theoretically suspend and then unsuspend the campaign (counts as YES here because he dropped out, but then he could still end up being the nominee). Or theoretically Biden could announce he's withdrawing but he could still get the votes from the delegates. Also this will resolve sooner if he drops out.