This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.
A deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.
A test detonation would result in the question resolving as YES.
For the purposes of this question, Ukrainian territory will be defined as internationally recognized prior to 2014 (that is, including Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia), including its 12 nautical mile territorial sea.
To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.
Resolution criteria are copied from https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/ and will resolve the same way.
1,000
3.00