This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated outside Ukraine and causes at least 1 fatality, after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
For the purposes of this question, Ukrainian territory will be defined as internationally recognized prior to 2014 (that is, including Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk), and include the 12 nautical mile territorial sea.
A test detonation would count towards question resolution.
Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.
1,000
3.00My forecast is based primarily on https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022 (a forecasting team with a strong track record).
They forecast the probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in the next year at 16%. Conditional on that, they forecast the probability of nuclear conflict beyond Ukraine in the next year at 9.6% (so 1.5% probability of both happening). That's not exactly the same timeframe as this question but it's similar - adjusting for that I would put it at 1% probability of this chain of events.
Then we need to also account for the probability of nuclear weapons used by other states. My overall forecast is 1-1.5%.