This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after 2022 and before January 1, 2025. Otherwise NO.
A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is a test, and whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised
A nuclear detonation is defined as an explosion where the majority of energy is from fission/fusion, as opposed to chemical or other explosives.
I.e. a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion does not count.
An attempted use of a nuclear weapon that does not detonate does not count.
The timezone for this market is UTC
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People seem to be betting this up based on reports of NK testing a nuclear drone:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-korea-underwater-nuclear-weapon-system-test/
The wording is confusing. It's a test of a drone that could have a nuke, but in the test it doesn't have a nuke.
The test was not of a nuclear device but rather of an "underwater self-explosive drone,"
This isn't really new, NK already tested nuclear-capable drones in 2023! https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-nuclear-drone-test-6cbbc90f22f9102112ec5861a7af8421
Sure, it's reasonable to update slightly up on a nuclear test, but these types of tests and provocative NK statements are so common that IMO it should be a negliglble update.
@jack The article might refer to the type of hydro-nuclear testing where the amount of normal fuel material is below the level required to sustain a chain reaction--ie. sub-critical testing.