Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included)
53
373
960
2025
30%
chance

This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after 2022 and before January 1, 2025. Otherwise NO.

  • A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is a test, and whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised

  • A nuclear detonation is defined as an explosion where the majority of energy is from fission/fusion, as opposed to chemical or other explosives.

    • I.e. a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion does not count.

    • An attempted use of a nuclear weapon that does not detonate does not count.

  • The timezone for this market is UTC

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Will this UK test of Trident 2 cause this market to resolve YES?

@Noit unarmed missile is not a nuclear weapon.

predicts NO

People seem to be betting this up based on reports of NK testing a nuclear drone:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-korea-underwater-nuclear-weapon-system-test/

The wording is confusing. It's a test of a drone that could have a nuke, but in the test it doesn't have a nuke.

The test was not of a nuclear device but rather of an "underwater self-explosive drone,"

This isn't really new, NK already tested nuclear-capable drones in 2023! https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-nuclear-drone-test-6cbbc90f22f9102112ec5861a7af8421

Sure, it's reasonable to update slightly up on a nuclear test, but these types of tests and provocative NK statements are so common that IMO it should be a negliglble update.

@jack The article might refer to the type of hydro-nuclear testing where the amount of normal fuel material is below the level required to sustain a chain reaction--ie. sub-critical testing.