Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included)

This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after 2022 and before January 1, 2025. Otherwise NO.

  • A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is a test, and whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised

  • A nuclear detonation is defined as an explosion where the majority of energy is from fission/fusion, as opposed to chemical or other explosives.

    • I.e. a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion does not count.

    • An attempted use of a nuclear weapon that does not detonate does not count.

  • The timezone for this market is UTC

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Will this UK test of Trident 2 cause this market to resolve YES?

@Noit unarmed missile is not a nuclear weapon.

predicts NO

People seem to be betting this up based on reports of NK testing a nuclear drone:


The wording is confusing. It's a test of a drone that could have a nuke, but in the test it doesn't have a nuke.

The test was not of a nuclear device but rather of an "underwater self-explosive drone,"

This isn't really new, NK already tested nuclear-capable drones in 2023! https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-nuclear-drone-test-6cbbc90f22f9102112ec5861a7af8421

Sure, it's reasonable to update slightly up on a nuclear test, but these types of tests and provocative NK statements are so common that IMO it should be a negliglble update.

@jack The article might refer to the type of hydro-nuclear testing where the amount of normal fuel material is below the level required to sustain a chain reaction--ie. sub-critical testing.