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Market for the 3rd debate!

Piggybacking

Is this a lesson in betting on things I'm not paying attention to and don't care about?

Take my 555 Mana

"Odds update every minute" seems to be a lie lol. I'm waiting for the 8pm ET data to come out, but looks like DeSantis won.

Ok, it's the same. Resolving.

it's joever

A few more victories like this and Desantis will drop out of the race by December!

@Joshua Where is the market for that 😂

Sorry, am I reading something wrong? Based on resolution criteria, Trump is ahead of DeSantis at 1.4% to 1.0% increase. Maybe more data is coming in but it resolves in 2.5 hours and the movement has seemed consistent if you look at the chart of the last day.

@JCE It starts from 8 pm ET yesterday, so trumps starting point is 71.6% and Desantis is 7.1% as pictured in https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2nd-gop-debate-wit#xHAzMQy0m4aeIz3DyjdP

Who will "win" the 2nd GOP debate with the highest prediction market gains?

Resolves to the candidate who gains the most in the prediction markets for the GOP nomination, using Election Betting Odds' aggregated market probabilities at https://electionbettingodds.com/GOPPrimary2024.html, during the day after the debate. Please note: a candidate who is not at the debate (e.g. Trump) can still win the debate by this definition! Resolves to the candidate with the highest absolute percentage gain in the 24 hour period from 8pm ET Wednesday September 27 (one hour before the start of the debate) to 8pm ET Thursday September 28. (This question is essentially about who the markets assess as outperforming expectations the most.) Addendum: In case there's a tie (using the most precise displayed probabilities, currently percentages with one decimal point), resolves equally to all candidates tied for the highest gain. [link preview]

@EliLifland Got it got it, thank you.

@EliLifland If I'm looking at this right, Trump's starting point is 71.6 and DeSantis's is 7.7, no?

@EricNeyman Where are you seeing 7.7? Are you sure you're looking at 8pm ET?

@jack Closet I can get from chart is at 8:00:42.

@JCE Yeah, exactly, that's why we were saying 7.1

@jack Just added for @EricNeyman

@jack Ahh, I was translating everything to PT and looking at 5pm. Silly me. Well, I guess I made some bad trades!

The polls say DeSantis won:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/538-washington-post-second-republican-debate-poll

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/republican-debate-september-poll/

can any desantis yes buyers explain why you're donating so much mana to the Ole Q Doc Foundation?

@Quinn trump wasn't even on the debate stage lol

@KnowNothing

Please note: a candidate who is not at the debate (e.g. Trump) can still win the debate by this definition!

I'm literally out of runway, I'm incredibly illiquid for a few days until some markets resolve, so I am not accepting further donations at this time 😦

@Quinn oops

This is a great question

@NathanpmYoung Thanks, but while I think the general idea is solid, I'm unhappy with the data sources available. The prices on ElectionBettingOdds seem too noisy. As I mentioned in my last comment, the changes here are ~1%, and EBO had weird swings in DeSantis's price of 5% for no apparent reason. But if I asked about prices on a specific platform like Polymarket or PredictIt, I'd only get price down to the percent, which is not enough precision when the shifts are only ~1%.