Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment.
(May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)
Related questions
@StarkLN Nice! Worth its own market.
Would love to see that for other groups.
From + 12 Obama in 2012 to +16 Trump in 2016 to +12 Biden in 2020. Quite dramatic swings.
Made a new market for non-swing states upsets, come bet on it while it's hot:
https://manifold.markets/BayesianTom/will-a-nonswing-state-flip-in-the-u
@ZinqTable
And the devil took Jesus up, and showed him all the kingdoms of the world in a moment of time, and said to him, “To you I will give all this authority and their glory; for it has been delivered to me, and I give it to whom I will. If you, then, will worship me, it shall all be yours.” And Jesus answered him, “It is written, ‘You shall worship the Lord your God, and him only shall you serve.'”
(Luke 4:5-8)
@Pazzaz Hahaha! Problem with doing two things at once. This was what I meant to link to: https://www.270towin.com/maps/wjJDr. But checkout that recipe!
If you truly think that's her only viable map, you can probably get a better deal in the North Carolina market
@adele Thanks! New to Manifold and trying to figure out how it all works.
On substance, I think the argument for NC being in play is absurd and I look forward to making some mana in the North Carolina Market. Why?:
- Polls are dead even in a place that a Democrats haven't won since 1976.
- In 1976, The Democratic party of the South had only recently changed from an unabashedly racist organization to something a bit more progressive.
- The GOP was in a mess after Nixon, then Ford. GOP didn't really get it's footing back until 1980 with Reagan. Who won NC in 1980.
- MAGA. Without offering opinions about their positions, I think it is fair to say that its simply a different kind of force in politics. And I think that NC is fertile MAGA ground.
@KenRiley NC is fairly progressive compared to other southern states. They've been ahead on renewable energy and climate policy and have a small growing tech sector. They tend to elect Democratic governors and have more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. Their largest voting block is unaffiliated 18-34 y/o. NC looks like it's in play. A lot of these close elections will probably come down to voter turnout. Are the candidates giving voters a reason to head to the polls?
I'm gonna buy Kamala "NO" every time that the probability that she'll win crosses 53%. I do not think she will win. I certainly don't think she has a 53% chance.
This is her only viable map, I believe:
https://www.google.com/search?q=pozole+blanco+receta+diana+kennedy&oq=pozole+blanco+receta+diana+kennedy&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigAdIBCTEzMjA2ajBqNKgCALACAQ&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:fe01245c,vid:x7ftH4oXJg4,st:0
If that's the outcome, the resident of the White House will likely be chosen either by Congress in some sort of vaguely 12th Amendment-compatible farce that the Supreme Court will rubber stamp. Obviously that process ends with Trump's victory.
These are not things I want to see happen, they are the things that I think will happen. Not really here for who is the better candidate (and find it amusing how often conversations here devolve to that).
@KenRiley pozole is excellent, and easy to make. some people do not like the texture of hominy, however. don't forget to brown the pork.
MU is one of only three pollsters 538 gives a perfect 3 star rating, and just published their best poll for Harris this cycle, showing her doing better than the current polling averages. And this poll was pre-debate, of course.
Conditional on winning Wisconsin, Nate Silver says Harris is 71% to win the presidency. 538 says that's 80%, and The Economist says 83%.
@Joshua and this is 1) pre-debate 2) registered voters only which typically leans R compared to the actual electorate.
@Joshua Encouraging. Hope to see the same for each of the 3 WiMiPa. Michigan is also encouraging but the concern is still PA.
@Joshua Marquette has been very biased towards Democrats in the Trump era. They never had a single poll in 2016 or 2020 that wasn't to the left of the final result.