This resolves to the top 3 bettors shown on the market https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu when it resolves, proportional to their total profit.
Only answers that name a specific user are eligible. Resolves as soon as BTE's market resolves. The close date is not relevant to resolution and will be extended as needed. In the unlikely event BTE's market appears abandoned for at least a month after I judge the lawsuit concluded, I will resolve then.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ67 | |
| 2 | Ṁ20 | |
| 3 | Ṁ17 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 |
@FlawlessTrain was a surprise entrant here, looks like they gradually bought a ton of NO over time and were proven right - congrats! I think they didn't start building up this position until after I created this market and made a list of candidates to keep an eye on, so it was a surprise to me.
@MartinRandall and myself both made the majority of our profits off of Spindle. I also did a ton of market making, which I think netted me a few tens of thousands of profit, which I was very happy with... and then Spindle dumped a ton of shares into my limit order and dwarfed all of that lol.
I also did build up a large YES position over time, before Musk decided to take the original deal again, so that cost me quite a bit of profit - I did think YES was a good buy at ~25% and a good sell at ~50% but I didn't do a great job of balancing the market making and the forecasting I was doing at the same time.