Which Super Tuesday state will Trump have the lowest margin of victory vs Haley?
resolved Mar 6
North Carolina

Which state will Haley get the closest to Trump, or if she wins, which state will she win by the most margin?

Resolves to the state that has the lowest margin of victory for Donald J. Trump vs Nikki Haley in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican primaries and caucuses.

Margin of victory is defined as Trump's vote percentage minus Haley's vote percentage. (Note that this may be negative if Haley defeats Trump, in which case it resolves to the lowest i.e. most negative state, i.e. the state in which Trump loses by the most.)

The question will resolve based on results from AP News, WSJ, and NYT if the answer is clear. If it remains unclear because the results are too close or contested, the final resolution source will be official announcement of primary results from the relevant authorities.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. (American Samoa is excluded as it is not a state.)

(This market includes a partial list of states that are most in contention to start, but I can add more upon request. No matter what, the question resolves to the answer as defined above, it will be added if needed - you can bet on the Other option for that.)

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Haley won Vermont, Trump won the rest.

It's interesting this market is so different from the polymarket one: https://polymarket.com/event/trumps-worst-state-on-super-tuesday?tid=1709461879187

bought Ṁ276 Utah NO

The main difference seems to be Utah.

It's true that Trump has been less popular in Utah than in other heavily Republican states.

But I think this market has failed to account for the fact that Utah is holding a caucus that's limited to only Republicans. That's the ideal scenario for Trump.

Meanwhile, Vermont and Virginia have open primaries. So a significant fraction of Democrats may choose to vote for Haley.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 don't caucuses sort of devalue incumbents / immediate name recognition because of the group discussion?

bought Ṁ20 Virginia YES

@JonathanRay I don't think Trump's advantage is related to name recognition. The problem for Haley is that caucuses generally attract a much smaller group of people who are extremely passionate about politics. (That's also true for primaries in general, but not to the same extent.)

And right now, that enthusiasm gap favors Trump: (20) Haley brushes off final Iowa poll showing her supporters are less enthusiastic (cnn.com).

Trump has many haters, but also many fanatical supporters, especially within the official party organization. That makes it harder for him to win the general election, but it's a big advantage in the primaries, and even more so in caucuses.

Haley's supporters are mostly independents and the (shrinking) wing of the Republican party that can't stand Trump, but they aren't as passionate about her.

So if you check the caucuses so far, Haley probably hasn't cracked 20%:

  • Iowa: 19% (though that was before DeSantis dropped out)

  • Nevada: Haley skipped the caucus and participated in the primary instead, even though it gave no delegates

  • Idaho: 13%

  • Missouri: The actual raw vote count isn't reported, but Trump won all 924 statewide delegates

It's not that surprising - would you bother showing up to a room full of fanatical Trump supporters to tell them all that you prefer Haley? Most people wouldn't, even if they like her. So she may finally get above 20% in Utah, but I'm pretty sure she's going to lose badly.

Compare to Virginia, for example - the latest poll shows that Trump wins 75-15 among Republicans, but only 51-43 among voters who are at least somewhat likely to vote in the primaries: Roanoke College Poll: Virginians weigh in ahead of Super Tuesday.

That's because Virginia allows independents and even Democrats to participate in their primary, and most of them prefer Haley. The question mark is how many of those "somewhat likely" voters show up, but I think she'll have a pretty good showing there.

State means excluding DC, correct?

@Conflux that's on Sunday for the Republican primary. So it doesn't count anyway

@jack Oh, that’s true. Ignore me then

Copying some relevant snippets from https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/02/28/nikki-haley-dropout-republican-convention-00143746 about the states where she seems to have the best shot:

  • She first held two rallies in Michigan in advance of that state’s primary. She then headed to Minnesota for a Minneapolis event. Both upper Midwestern states are known for their relatively moderate politics and have no party registration, allowing independents and stray Democrats to cast Republican ballots.

  • Haley jetted to Colorado this week, another moderate state with a high level of educational attainment that allows registered independents to cast Republican ballots.

  • Then Haley streaks to Utah, which holds a caucus on Super Tuesday. That appears to be a strange choice until one recalls that Mormons strongly opposed Trump in 2016. He finished third in that year’s GOP contest, garnering only 14 percent.

  • After that, she’s back to the East Coast where she holds rallies in North Carolina, Virginia, and the nation’s capital. D.C. is probably her best bet to win because it’s the headquarters of the anti-Trump GOP elite. Rubio and John Kasich combined to get nearly 73 percent here in 2016. If Haley can’t win here, she can’t win anywhere.

  • Her final scheduled events are in especially telling locations. One will unfold in Needham, Massachusetts. Needham makes Centennial look like a slum from the wrong side of the tracks. Its median household income exceeds $200,000 and over 80 percent of adults have a four-year degree or better.

  • Then comes a rally in Vermont, where moderate Phil Scott is one of the few Republican governors to have endorsed her.

  • Massachusetts, neighboring Vermont and Maine all allow independents to vote in their Super Tuesday contests and typically prefer more moderate Republicans. Haley will be betting they will make a final stand despite the odds against her.