When will the next Speaker of the House be elected by? [October]
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Plus
76
Ṁ70k
resolved Oct 25
Resolved
NO
Tue October 10
Resolved
NO
Wed October 11
Resolved
NO
Thu October 12
Resolved
NO
Fri October 13
Resolved
NO
Sun October 15
Resolved
NO
Fri October 20
Resolved
YES
Tue October 31

Updated question with more dates: https://manifold.markets/jack/when-will-the-next-speaker-of-the-h-a67d0b6eae85

Each date resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House is elected by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date, otherwise NO.

(For example, if the next Speaker is elected on October 20, then both the October 20 and the October 31 dates resolve YES while the earlier dates resolve NO.)

Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution

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Does giving McHenry power to officially pass legislation count as "the next Speaker... be[ing] elected" (especially if it's only temporary)?

@G_ No. His title is Speaker Pro Tempore, which is not Speaker.

“In a few weeks”!

@MarkHamill Who on earth would be a "Consensus" Speaker??

@DanielRohrer Someone who they consider an honest broker. Any non-election denying R is a start. I still say Liz Cheney is not impossible.

@jack October 10th resolves no I think?

There might be a serious bug with these new markets. Closing until James tells us what's going on lol.

Ok the bug was fixed. It was just setting the starting liquidity of each answer too high. Reopened. I'm happy to just pay Manifold the relevant amount haha.

Closed again due to another bug oops

@jack Reopened haha. Selling is temporarily disabled though!

So if they are elected on October 20, the Oct 31 market resolves YES, right?

@DanMan314 Correct.

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