When will the first ballot to elect the next Speaker of the House start by?

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Ṁ16k

resolved Oct 17

Resolved

YES

Tue October 24

Resolved

YES

Fri October 20

Resolved

YES

Tue October 17

Resolved

Sun October 15

Resolved

Fri October 13

Resolved

Wed October 11

Resolved

Thu October 12

Resolves YES if a vote for the election of the next Speaker of the House starts by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date, otherwise NO.

Only a full House vote to officially elect the next Speaker counts. E.g. a private Republican caucus vote does not count, and procedural votes do not count.

(For example, if it happens on October 20, then both the October 20 and the October 31 dates resolve YES while the earlier dates resolve NO.)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#118th Congress

#Speaker of the House election

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Here’s the same market with a different format (linked markets resolving to a single day). I’d be interested to hear which format people prefer for this market?

@SimonGrayson I'm also curious about that. Personally I much prefer being able to bet on a whole range of dates, rather than individual dates (which is why I've been asking for the new market format for a long time!), even though the liquidity is somewhat worse. Ideally Manifold will support mutually exclusive buckets and also betting on ranges of buckets.

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