What fraction of coin sides worldwide show a person's head?

Ṁ467

Ṁ100

resolved Oct 7

Resolved as

33%

ALL

Of all standard coins in circulation anywhere in the world, what fraction of their sides show a person's head?

Resolves to whatever I think is a reasonable estimate based on the market and comments - which will most likely be to market probability unless I think the market probability is wrong.

Close date updated to 2022-10-05 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-10-10 11:59 pm

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7 Comments

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93 Trades

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bought Ṁ22 of YES

I'll resolve this sometime when I feel that the market is not providing new information. Most recent big trade was by a bot which is funny, but maybe the bot knows something I don't :)

predicted NO

My ballpark estimate is based on the following data points:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Currency_in_circulation lists the top currencies by value, and the top 3 are by far higher than the others. Value is not the best proxy for number of coins, but it's probably reasonable enough to get a ballpark.

Of those, bills (not coins) in circulation:

50B US - https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/coin_currcircvolume.htm
- ~1 head per coin
30B Euro - https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/banknotes+coins/circulation/html/index.en.html
- Roughly guessing ~0.5 heads per coin average
18B Japan - https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/education/oshiete/money/c06.htm/
- Looks like very few heads, I'll just put it down as ~0 heads per coin average

Using a ballpark estimate that coins are roughly proportional to bills, we end up with (50*1+30*.5+18*0)/(50+30+18)/2 = 33% sides showing a head. Seems like a reasonable guess.

predicted NO

@Yev care to explain your reasoning? :)

predicted NO

Reopening the market because it seems like there is likely that continued trading will be good for the market and traders.

sold Ṁ95 of NO

@jack I wanted to test the limits of what you think as "wrong probability". Now I see that 18% is wrong.

predicted NO

@Yev It seems a little lower than I'd expect, but more important is that a significant change in price suggests there's more information for the market to aggregate, and there's no rush to close this market.