Poll: Should you be able to input a bet as buying up to a probability/price?
Resolved
YESHere's my basic proposal: you should be able to input trades of the form "buy all YES shares available on the market below a price of 42 cents" or in other words, "buy until the price/probability reaches a specified amount". E.g. if the current price is 50, I can say "buy up to 60" - this means buy yes until the price reaches 60. Or "buy down to 45" buys no until the price reaches 45.
I also think the interface should let you put in either a M$ figure or a probability figure, and show you what the other number is. Today I can start by inputting M$10 and it'll show me what the end probability is; I want to be able to do the reverse too where I input the end probability and it shows me how much M$ investment that would be.
Vote by commenting with YES or NO in your comment (please put it at the start of your comment). You can update your vote by commenting again; only your last response will be counted. This market resolves to the % of people responding with YES out of YES + NO.
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More details and nice things about this:
Notes:
- For YES price and probability are the same thing, and for NO price = 1 - probability. I'll use these interchangeably.
- The system should still execute your trade against the AMM at the best possible price, as it does today - e.g. when current price is 50 and you input an order to buy up to 60, your trades should execute continuously over the interval 50-60, not all at 60.
The above was still just talking about market orders - orders that execute immediately against the AMM. But this can also be seen as similar to limit orders, and is nice because maybe they can be presented in the same interface: you specify a) a max M$ amount, b) a max price, and c) a duration your order is open - e.g. "right now" executes now (aka market order), "day" or whatever first executes as much as possible against the current market, then the remainder goes onto the limit order book to execute against future orders.
This may also a more robust way to input trades. Currently, if I put in a buy yes, and someone else buys M$1000 YES right as I'm clicking the "submit bet" button, moving the price from 30 to 90, I can end up buying at a much higher price than I intended, which is really bad for me. If you input your order via a max price, that prevents this issue. Depending on how the UX is designed, it might exchange it for an issue where you can invest much more funds than you intended - but the idea where you are allowed to input both a max price and a max M$ amount prevents that as well.
Another nice thing is if I already have no shares, and say "buy up to 60", this can automatically start selling no shares first, then buying yes shares. In comparison, today you have to manually make two separate trades, or you just buy yes and each pair of 1 yes+1 no is converted into M$1 - but this doesn't behave quite the same as selling your no and is slightly worse for you I think, at least in part because buys cost fees while sales do not.
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Creating this from my proposal in https://manifold.markets/Austin/poll-yesno-markets-how-often-would#H6HykIl97661e1H2sKn1, see there for some previous discussion.
Feel free to discuss and suggest alternative approaches as well - if there's enough I might start a free-response market or something.
Jun 5, 8:00am: The market will close in 1 week, but the poll will remain open another week after that on 6/18. At that time the poll results will be tabulated and the market resolves based on that. (The reason for this is I think it makes the market overall more interesting and informative.)
Jun 5, 8:05am: You can also vote ABSTAIN if you wish to cancel a previous YES or NO vote and change it to a non-vote.
Reminder that the poll closes 1 week after the market closes.
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Apparently James had a very similar idea already: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Proposal-Limit-Orders-87c65f6dfad444cc83ce017baa9e6714 under "Your probability prediction + limit orders" - nice
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Yeah, the interface I'm kind of imagining is you input your max investment amount in M$ and/or your max price, and then the interface then shows you the remaining relevant information. In very deep markets most people will bet based on fund amounts, in shallow markets people might tend to bet based on prices.
Sliders is an interesting idea, I do find myself doing a lot of up/down adjusting by tweaking the M$ numbers so having a slider actually could be better for that.
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YES, with a a few caveats:
- in deep markets getting to a specified probability may be unexpectedly expensive
- not sure about what the ideal UX is; having more options for people to input places makes things more complex.
- a twist on this is adjusting the graph itself https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Proposal-Slide-to-bet-c649ab13a8c24ef8bcbee78c2c618956
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YES
Meta note: I think polls should also include an ABSTAIN option to cancel out a previous vote.
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@JoyVoid Good point, if someone commented that I would respect their choice, and I'll explicitly add that to the resolution criteria for next time.
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YES. Right now, that's what I am doing in most markets (reverse-finding the amount of shares I need to/can buy to get the market probability to my estimate). Although I believe this is less relevant in markets with very large betting pools where one single non-whale bettor does not have enough betting power to move the price all the way to their estimate.
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