If Trump is indicted on criminal charges, resolves YES if the Polymarket prediction for him winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination falls by at least 2% from 1 week before the announcement of the indictment to 1 week after. Resolves NO if he is indicted and that does not happen. Resolves N/A if he is not indicted on criminal charges before the nomination.
The Polymarket prediction will be defined as the mid-market price (average of bid and ask) for Trump on https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination. If the spread is larger than 5 cents, it will instead be defined as the AMM price, clipped to the range from bid to ask (i.e. defined as the AMM price if it is between the bid and ask prices; otherwise as the bid price if the AMM price is less than the bid, otherwise as the ask price if the AMM price is greater than the ask.)
Any criminal indictment in any jurisdication will count.
Related
π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ95 | |
| 2 | αΉ67 | |
| 3 | αΉ19 | |
| 4 | αΉ11 |
Trump was just indicted. 1 week ago, the Polymarket prices were at 52 and 53. (YES = 53, NO = 48, that's the price to buy a NO share, so it means you could sell YES at 52%). The mid-market price is therefore 52.5. Will check the prices in 1 week and compare.
(Please let me know if I've made any mistakes here).
Quick update right after opening the market: I had originally wanted to compare 1 month before the announcement to 1 week after, but I just realized that Polymarket's graphs only go 1 week back, so it would be difficult to get the data for 1 month ago. Changing the baseline for comparison to 1 week before announcement.