If Trump is indicted, will his 2024 nomination chances predicted on Polymarket fall by at least 5%?
Dec 31

If Trump is indicted on criminal charges, resolves YES if the Polymarket prediction for him winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination falls by at least 5% from 1 week before the announcement of the indictment to 1 week after. Resolves NO if he is indicted and that does not happen. Resolves N/A if he is not indicted on criminal charges before the nomination.

The Polymarket prediction will be defined as the mid-market price (average of bid and ask) for Trump on https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination. If the spread is larger than 5 cents, it will instead be defined as the AMM price, clipped to the range from bid to ask (i.e. defined as the AMM price if it is between the bid and ask prices; otherwise as the bid price if the AMM price is less than the bid, otherwise as the ask price if the AMM price is greater than the ask.)

Any criminal indictment in any jurisdication will count.

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Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ150 of NO

The current prediction on Polymarket, just after the indictment, is 60.5%. So currently it's up 8%, and would need to drop by 13%.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting NO at 31%

Trump was just indicted. 1 week ago, the Polymarket prices were at 52 and 53. (YES = 53, NO = 48, that's the price to buy a NO share, so it means you could sell YES at 52%). The mid-market price is therefore 52.5. Will check the prices in 1 week and compare.

(Please let me know if I've made any mistakes here).

YaakovSaxon avatar
Yaakov Saxon

Interestingly, the higher the chance of his being indicted was considered to be at the time, the more that should* already be priced in, and the less the market should need to move when it actually happens

*though that doesn’t necessarily mean it is, I guess

ErickBall avatar
Erick Ballis predicting NO at 48%

@YaakovSaxon given that he's now at 95% to be indicted, it should hardly need to move at all, right? 5% seems like a lot, considering.

jack avatar
Jackis predicting NO at 46%

Depends on the timing of the announcement. If it comes soon enough, 1 week before the announcement would still be before the news broke of the potential impending announcement.