If Trump is indicted, will his 2024 nomination chances predicted on Polymarket fall by at least 5%?

US Politics•2024 US Presidential Election•Trump

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If Trump is indicted on criminal charges, resolves YES if the Polymarket prediction for him winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination falls by at least 5% from 1 week before the announcement of the indictment to 1 week after. Resolves NO if he is indicted and that does not happen. Resolves N/A if he is not indicted on criminal charges before the nomination.

The Polymarket prediction will be defined as the mid-market price (average of bid and ask) for Trump on https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination. If the spread is larger than 5 cents, it will instead be defined as the AMM price, clipped to the range from bid to ask (i.e. defined as the AMM price if it is between the bid and ask prices; otherwise as the bid price if the AMM price is less than the bid, otherwise as the ask price if the AMM price is greater than the ask.)

Any criminal indictment in any jurisdication will count.

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9 Comments

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predicted NO

One week after the indictment's announcement, i.e. the evening of 4/6, the Polymarket prediction was 60.5 (bid-ask spread was 60-61), which is higher than the Polymarket prediction a week before the indictment's announcement which was 52.5. This market resolves NO.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

The first post-indictment poll I've seen actually has him polling better with Republican voters than he was before, somehow. Not what I expected to happen.

predicted NO

@evergreenemily It would be one thing if he were being indicted by Texas or Florida, but the Republican voters already dislike New York, so it's not too surprising that they see this as a positive.

predicted NO

I was expecting his poll numbers to either stay flat or go up, so I'm not surprised. See also /jack/if-trump-is-indicted-will-his-favor

bought Ṁ150 of NO

The current prediction on Polymarket, just after the indictment, is 60.5%. So currently it's up 8%, and would need to drop by 13%.

predicted NO

Trump was just indicted. 1 week ago, the Polymarket prices were at 52 and 53. (YES = 53, NO = 48, that's the price to buy a NO share, so it means you could sell YES at 52%). The mid-market price is therefore 52.5. Will check the prices in 1 week and compare.

(Please let me know if I've made any mistakes here).

Interestingly, the higher the chance of his being indicted was considered to be at the time, the more that should* already be priced in, and the less the market should need to move when it actually happens

*though that doesn’t necessarily mean it is, I guess

predicted NO

@YaakovSaxon given that he's now at 95% to be indicted, it should hardly need to move at all, right? 5% seems like a lot, considering.

predicted NO

Depends on the timing of the announcement. If it comes soon enough, 1 week before the announcement would still be before the news broke of the potential impending announcement.