One week after the indictment's announcement, i.e. the evening of 4/6, the Polymarket prediction was 60.5 (bid-ask spread was 60-61), which is higher than the Polymarket prediction a week before the indictment's announcement which was 52.5. This market resolves NO.

The first post-indictment poll I've seen actually has him polling better with Republican voters than he was before, somehow. Not what I expected to happen.

@evergreenemily It would be one thing if he were being indicted by Texas or Florida, but the Republican voters already dislike New York, so it's not too surprising that they see this as a positive.

I was expecting his poll numbers to either stay flat or go up, so I'm not surprised. See also /jack/if-trump-is-indicted-will-his-favor

The current prediction on Polymarket, just after the indictment, is 60.5%. So currently it's up 8%, and would need to drop by 13%.

Trump was just indicted. 1 week ago, the Polymarket prices were at 52 and 53. (YES = 53, NO = 48, that's the price to buy a NO share, so it means you could sell YES at 52%). The mid-market price is therefore 52.5. Will check the prices in 1 week and compare.

(Please let me know if I've made any mistakes here).

Interestingly, the higher the chance of his being indicted was considered to be at the time, the more that should* already be priced in, and the less the market should need to move when it actually happens

*though that doesn’t necessarily mean it is, I guess

@YaakovSaxon given that he's now at 95% to be indicted, it should hardly need to move at all, right? 5% seems like a lot, considering.

Depends on the timing of the announcement. If it comes soon enough, 1 week before the announcement would still be before the news broke of the potential impending announcement.