If Trump is indicted on criminal charges, resolves YES if the Polymarket prediction for him winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination falls by at least 5% from 1 week before the announcement of the indictment to 1 week after. Resolves NO if he is indicted and that does not happen. Resolves N/A if he is not indicted on criminal charges before the nomination.

The Polymarket prediction will be defined as the mid-market price (average of bid and ask) for Trump on https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-the-us-2024-republican-presidential-nomination. If the spread is larger than 5 cents, it will instead be defined as the AMM price, clipped to the range from bid to ask (i.e. defined as the AMM price if it is between the bid and ask prices; otherwise as the bid price if the AMM price is less than the bid, otherwise as the ask price if the AMM price is greater than the ask.)

Any criminal indictment in any jurisdication will count.