This question will resolve as N/A if no nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. If such a detonation occurs, resolves YES if within one year, any nuclear weapon is detonated with countervalue targeting (that includes the case if the first detonation is countervalue). Resolves NO otherwise.

Countervalue targeting is "the targeting of an opponent's assets that are of value but not actually a military threat, such as cities and civilian populations". Compared to nuclear strikes against counterforce targets or battlefield targets, countervalue nuclear strikes would typically cause both many more immediate fatalities and much more smoke (increasing the risk of nuclear winter).

Resolution details (mostly copied from Metaculus):

• A detonation is considered countervalue for the purpose of this question if credible media reporting does not widely consider a military or industrial target as the primary target of the attack (except in the case of strikes on capital cities, which will automatically be considered countervalue for this question even if credible media report that the rationale for the strike was disabling command and control structures).

• Offensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.

• The detonation does not need to be deliberate to count towards question resolution - an inadvertent, accidental, or unauthorized detonation can count.

I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7461/total-countervalue-detonations-by-2050/ and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive and whether it counts as countervalue.

Oct 6, 9:55pm: If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively before 2024, will a countervalue nuclear detonation occur within 1 year? (Countervalue = targeting civilian populations, not military targets) → If a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively before 2024, will a countervalue (non-military target) nuclear detonation occur within 1 year?