How many markets will be created next week? (7/5-7/11, with new rewards per unique bettor just added)
4
300Ṁ789
resolved Jul 13
Resolved
182
Resolves to the number of markets created between 7/5 and 7/11 (inclusive) according to https://manifold.markets/stats For reference, there were 139 markets created last week after daily free markets were removed: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-many-markets-will-be-created-ne. And there were 290 markets created in the week before that.
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Another follow-up now that rewards were increased from M$5 to M$10: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-many-markets-will-be-created-ne-8a86329e6a9f
Interesting that the creator rewards made up only 30% of the previous drop from the removal of daily free markets. This seems to support my thinking that the initial cost is still too high.
Or alternatively that rewards for daily participation work really well. (Probably a mix of both of those.)
Also some of the drop is from getting rid of the spam markets, which is a good thing. Not sure how many of those there were - my guess is about 20-40 per week, which would be ~20% of the drop.
@jack good point, that'd be easy to calculate via time to resolution, might make a bounty for that
 07/05 54  07/06 28  07/07 15  07/08 24  07/09 16  07/10 24  07/11 21 Total 182
Will leave this open for today in case someone finds an error
Running tally: 7/5: 55. Naive trend extrapolation: 55 * 7 = 385
7/5 54 7/6 28 7/7 15 7/8 24 Average so far is 30/day -> 211 over 7 days if the average remains the same.
Thanks for making this! comment and I'll tip you
@ian Thanks!
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