How many markets will be created next week, with daily free markets just removed? (prob=count/300)
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100Ṁ444resolved Jul 2
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Daily free markets were just removed. The number of markets created in the past week was 290 - see https://manifold.markets/stats > Market Stats > under "Markets created in the past..." If daily free markets continue not to exist for at least 5 of the next 7 days, what will be the number of markets created over the next week?
Let N be the number of markets created in the past week according to https://manifold.markets/stats on 6/30. Resolves to N / 300. If N > 300, resolves to 100%.
Resolves N/A if daily free markets are reinstated for at least 2 of the next 7 days.
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With new rewards per unique bettor just added, here's a follow-up market for next week: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-many-markets-will-be-created-ne-edb2b9156d4e
Wait, are we counting June 23rd? The visualisation in question does not exist anymore.
Currently, we have 67 markets if excluding June 23rd, and 110 including it:
```python
from datetime import datetime
from itertools import takewhile
from urllib import response
import requests
url = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets"
response = requests.get(url)
l = response.json()
count_from = datetime(2022, 6, 23).timestamp() * 1000
print(len(list(takewhile(lambda x: x['createdTime'] > count_from, l))))
```
@JoyVoid I still see it? And I won't resolve by the visual, I'll resolve by wasabipesto's API stats as described in the market description - my intent was to look at the last 7 days at some point around the end of the day 6/30, which would potentially include part of the end of 6/23. But it would be clearer to just use the API to get the number of markets created on the days 6/24-6/30 inclusive - assuming that reasonably agrees with wasabipesto's stats.
Best visual for the change in market creation so far is https://manifold.markets/stats > Daily activity > Markets created. June 23 was when the daily free markets were removed.
@ian made a similar market on the next month: https://manifold.markets/ian/what-of-new-markets-will-be-created