How many markets will be created next week, with daily free markets just removed? (prob=count/300)

104

Ṁ445

Ṁ100

resolved Jul 2

Resolved as

46%

ALL

Daily free markets were just removed. The number of markets created in the past week was 290 - see https://manifold.markets/stats > Market Stats > under "Markets created in the past..." If daily free markets continue not to exist for at least 5 of the next 7 days, what will be the number of markets created over the next week? Let N be the number of markets created in the past week according to https://manifold.markets/stats on 6/30. Resolves to N / 300. If N > 300, resolves to 100%. Resolves N/A if daily free markets are reinstated for at least 2 of the next 7 days.

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11 Comments

9 Holders

27 Trades

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predicted YES

With new rewards per unique bettor just added, here's a follow-up market for next week: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-many-markets-will-be-created-ne-edb2b9156d4e

predicted NO

@jack I'm back.

predicted YES

Right now, https://manifold.markets/stats shows 139 markets created in the past week.

predicted YES

Resolving to 139 / 300 = 46%

bought Ṁ4 of YES

hmm, seems like metaculus bot's doing some heavy lifting today

predicted YES

Yeah, forgot to take it into account

sold Ṁ60 of NO

Wait, are we counting June 23rd? The visualisation in question does not exist anymore. Currently, we have 67 markets if excluding June 23rd, and 110 including it: ```python from datetime import datetime from itertools import takewhile from urllib import response import requests url = "https://manifold.markets/api/v0/markets" response = requests.get(url) l = response.json() count_from = datetime(2022, 6, 23).timestamp() * 1000 print(len(list(takewhile(lambda x: x['createdTime'] > count_from, l)))) ```

predicted YES

@JoyVoid I still see it? And I won't resolve by the visual, I'll resolve by wasabipesto's API stats as described in the market description - my intent was to look at the last 7 days at some point around the end of the day 6/30, which would potentially include part of the end of 6/23. But it would be clearer to just use the API to get the number of markets created on the days 6/24-6/30 inclusive - assuming that reasonably agrees with wasabipesto's stats.

predicted YES

Best visual for the change in market creation so far is https://manifold.markets/stats > Daily activity > Markets created. June 23 was when the daily free markets were removed.