If I take Paxlovid, will I have a Covid rebound?

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resolved Jul 10

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YES

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Resolves YES if after the 5-day Paxlovid course, I have a Covid rebound; roughly defined as: my symptoms get worse again and/or rapid antigen tests show strong positives again. See https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1522925869358014464 for some discussion and background. Close date updated to 2022-07-16 11:59 pm

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#Jack's personal Covid questions

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predicted YES

Sad to be winning this bet! I hope you get better soon.

predicted YES

Likewise, hope you get better!

predicted YES

Thanks! I'm still feeling fine in terms of symptoms, so hoping that continues and that I can exit isolation soon :)

For reference, my best a priori estimate was 5-10%. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.21.22276724v1 finds about 6% rebound rates after Paxlovid treatment (and about 8% after Molnupiravir). I think the Pfizer study that reports a 2% rebound rate is an underestimate (not sure why). https://blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-observations/index.php/mayo-clinic-study-on-paxlovid-outcomes-is-reassuring-but-likely-underestimates-rebound-rate/2022/06/21/ agrees with thinking it's an underestimate and guesses the rate of rebounds is in the 5-10% range (mostly based on anecdotal data).

predicted YES

I thought those studies were about worsening rebound, as opposed to just "testing positive again". Will have to read more into them, it might be that my odds were off, I thought testing positive after taking paxlovid was quite common Thank you for posting those links and your reasonning

predicted YES

@JoyVoid The first link is an observation study which looked at both rebounding symptoms and rebounding test results and found similar rates of both. "The 7-day and 30-day COVID-19 rebound rates after Paxlovid treatment were 3.53% and 5.40% for COVID-19 infection, 2.31% and 5.87% for COVID-19 symptoms, and 0.44% and 0.77% for hospitalizations." The study population includes 11,270 patients who were treated with Paxlovid.

predicted YES

Btw I didn't find this study until after the fact, which probably saved me a fair amount of losses on this market lol - I probably would have bet even more on NO if I'd seen this earlier. The best I found while the market was open was some people analyzing a graph of a handful of covid test trendlines and counting how many of them seemed to go back up... which didn't give me a lot to go on.

Just got a strong positive result on a rapid antigen test today, after getting a negative on Friday 7/8 and very faint positives on 7/3 through 7/7 and 7/9. So unfortunately this market resolves YES

Viral load appears to be continuing to decrease. Main symptom now is a cough that is continuing to get better only very slowly. Some of the info I found on rebounds says they've been observed 2 to 8 days after recovery, so I'll continue to monitor for the next week or so.

predicted NO

I've been testing daily with rapid antigen tests to get a sense of how high my viral load is. From 6/30 to 7/2 it was a very strong positive line. 7/3 and 7/4 the line was faint. Today (7/5) I got a very faint line. I started Paxlovid on 7/1 afternoon, and my 5-day Paxlovid course ends 7/6 morning

predicted NO

I started Paxlovid 1 day after symptoms onset and positive rapid antigen test.

predicted NO

I am taking paxlovid now, so the conditional is satisfied.

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