How far will the 2nd Starship test get before failing?
37
2.1kṀ3805
resolved Nov 18
Resolved
YES
Launch (clears the launch tower)
Resolved
YES
Max Q
Resolved
YES
Main engine cut-off (MECO)
Resolved
YES
Second stage engine start (SES)
Resolved
YES
Stage separation
Resolved
YES
Booster boostback burn startup
Resolved
N/A
Second stage touchdown
Resolved
N/A
Booster touchdown
Resolved
NO
Second stage engine cutoff (SECO)
Resolved
NO
Booster boostback burn shutdown
Resolved
NO
Booster touchdown (hard or soft)
Resolved
NO
Booster landing burn startup
Resolved
NO
Second stage touchdown (hard or soft)

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Each option resolves YES if the next (2nd) Starship full stack flight test successfully completes that milestone (successfully requires it to be intact and on a nominal trajectory). NO otherwise (i.e. if it fails during or before completing that milestone).

(Use sort by high % to show the options in order)

See the flight test timeline at https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-2

Examples and more detailed definitions:

  • "Nominal trajectory" means within normal or acceptable limits to complete the planned test. If SpaceX calls out on the broadcast that it's nominal, that should also be sufficient.

  • If Starship reaches MaxQ and the test has been proceeding nominally up to that point, but explodes 2 seconds later, MaxQ still resolves YES.

  • If Starship's trajectory is non-nominal at the point of MECO, resolves NO regardless of whether the engines shut off or not.

  • If MECO is attempted but the engines fail to shut down, and the rocket explodes before they can successfully shut down, MECO resolves NO.

  • Note that the planned MECO is "most engines cut off", not all - Starship will be doing a hot staging

  • Second stage engine start (SES) does not require stage separation to complete successfully, as long as the engines ignite successfully. At least half the engines must ignite to count as a success.

  • For stage separation, if SpaceX calls out second stage nominal, that should be enough for YES. If the engines light but the second stage explodes instead of separating, that's a NO. If the engines light and the rocket starts spinning unrecoverably out of control during stage separation, it's a NO even if it does actually separate.

  • Second stage touchdown resolves YES if Starship reaches the target landing area and is intact at the moment it hits the surface, even if it is an uncontrolled crash. Same for booster touchdown.

  • The second stage and booster boostback/landing milestones are independent. I.e. the second stage milestones only require the second stage to successfully complete that milestone, it doesn't matter what happens to the booster; and vice versa with the booster milestones.

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