Each option resolves YES if the next (2nd) Starship full stack flight test completes that milestone without exploding, NO otherwise (i.e. if it explodes during or before completing that milestone).

(Use sort by old to show the options in order)

See the flight test timeline at https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starship-flight-2

Examples and more detailed definitions:

• "Exploding" here will include any Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly

• The second stage and stage separation milestones only require the second stage not to explode. Similarly, the booster boostback/landing milestones only require the booster not to explode.

• If Starship reaches MaxQ but explodes 2 seconds later, MaxQ still resolves YES.

• MECO/SECO are defined as when the engines are intentionally shut down - if all the engines shutdown unintentionally that doesn't count.

• If MECO is attempted but the engines fail to shut down, and the rocket explodes before they can successfully shut down, MECO resolves NO.

• Note that Starship will be doing a hot staging - they will cut off most but not all of the booster engines, ignite the second stage engines, and then the stages separate. This is different from typical!

• Note that the planned MECO is "most engines cut off", not all.

• Second stage engine start (SES) does not require stage separation to complete successfully, as long as the engines ignite successfully. At least half the engines must ignite to count as a success.

• Similarly, for booster burn startup, at least half the engines that are supposed to ignite must ignite to count as a success.

• For stage separation, if the second stage separates intact, that's a YES (even if e.g. the rocket starts spinning unrecoverably out of control, as long as it stays intact). If the engines light but the second stage explodes instead of separating, that's a NO. If the stages separate unintentionally, that's a NO.

• Second stage touchdown resolves YES if Starship touches down anywhere in the Pacific Ocean and is intact at the moment it hits the surface, even if it is an uncontrolled crash. If it touches down elsewhere, e.g. in Texas, that's a NO.

• Similarly for booster touchdown, resolves YES if the booster (separated from the second stage) touches down anywhere in the Gulf of Mexico and is intact at the moment it hits the surface.

• The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.

This is a modified version of https://manifold.markets/jack/how-far-will-the-next-starship-test