Can Isaac be trusted to uphold deals he makes with another Manifold user?

Resolves NO if Isaac breaks any deal he makes with another Manifold user before the end of 2024. Resolves YES otherwise.

Context: People on Manifold make a lot of deals that rely on reputation and trust, such as loaning mana to someone else or teaming up on a high-stakes gambling market. And indeed, people are almost always trustworthy - there is a strong community norm that discussions and deals are honest and in good faith.

This market is created by Isaac's request, since a market created by a third party can be better trusted to resolve without bias, similar to

The specific resolution criteria of this market are: If before the end of 2024 Isaac is credibly accused of breaking any deal he makes with another Manifold user in a serious way, this market resolves to NO. Otherwise it resolves to YES.

For an accusation to count as "credible" it does not need to be proven true, but it needs to be supported by a preponderance of evidence. For it to be "credible" and "serious" it needs to convince a significant fraction of people who once trusted Isaac that they should trust him less in the future.

  • For example, if Isaac forgot to pay a mana loan back on time, but paid it back a day late upon remembering or being reminded, and the lender thought Isaac acted in good faith, that would not count as "serious". But if the lender credibly accused Isaac of trying to delay the payment in bad faith, that would likely count as "serious".

  • Deals made in games that explicitly allow backstabbing (think mafia or diplomacy) do not count for obvious reasons.

In the event of a disagreement on how this market should be resolved, I may defer to a poll of trustworthy Manifold users.

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