This is a market on whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will name 18 or more storms during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if NOAA names 18 or more storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If 18 or more storms are named during the Atlantic hurricane season, the market will resolve to "Yes" immediately. Note: storms that form before the designated period but which are active during it are included in NOAA’s count. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
This market may only resolve to "No" after December 1, 2023, 12:00:00 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not occurred before then.
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Rina is officially #17 (or 18, counting the unnamed named storm in January? @parhizj ?).
re, @NicoDelon and @itsTomekK . The link of the source for resolution includes storms outside the official hurricane season, while the description excludes it. It would be best if @itsTomekK would explicitly say whether he will count the storm from January or not.
@itsTomekK According to the resolution source for this market storm #1 was in January, so this should already resolve YES. It's not clear what you mean by "description counts."
The average is about 10. There were 14 last years. The previous few years were wild (21 in 2021, 30 in 2020). But this season is widely expected to be about average. 18 would be significantly above the forecast. It’s certainly possible but it’s not likely.
@NicoDelon Additionaly, El Niño historically causes less Atlantic hurricanes to appear, so that certainly decreases the odds.