Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 90?
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resolved Feb 19
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Hogwarts Legacy is an immersive, open-world action RPG set in the world first introduced in the Harry Potter books. It is to be released on February 10.

Metascore is a popular ranking of games, movies, shows and music based on a weighted average of the world's most respected critics.

https://www.metacritic.com/game/pc/hogwarts-legacy

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Metascore will be checked on February 17.

Jan 25, 2:58pm: Will the game 'Hogwart Legacy' get Metascore greater than 90? → Will the game 'Hogwarts Legacy' get Metascore greater than 90?

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predicted NO

More metascore madness:

predicted YES
HOGWART

HOGWART

bought Ṁ100 of YES

HOGWART

bought Ṁ100 of NO

I would guess that this game gets pretty similar reception to a game like Ghost of Tsushima. A lot of fans will laude it due to some culture war reasons, and will get pretty favorable reviews due to the world and gameplay, but will be criticized due to repetitive side missions and an underwhelming story.

predicted NO

@bingeworthy I would guess it will get between an 80 and 86.

predicted YES
bought Ṁ350 of NO

Three arguments for why this should be lower:

1. Base rates: The developer of the game, Avalanche Studios, has never scored higher than metacritic 81 in the past; their history is mostly developing Disney-movie tie-in games like "Toy Story 3", "Cars 2", and "Disney Infinity". I have plenty of fond memories of playing the first three levels of "Tak 2: The Staff of Dreams" when I was a kid (before becoming stuck on a tricky platforming challenge), but idk if Avalanche really has what it takes to create a game-of-the-year-tier experience.



2. Subjective excitement level: Obviously Hogwarts Legacy looks graphically amazing; Avalanche Studios has clearly staffed up and spent a long time creating this truly next-gen-looking game. But the combat looks lame IMO, the other gameplay seems like it might be uncomfortably close to the "wander around and play minigames" style of classic Harry Potter shovelware, and if the game is hiding an awesome, cinematic story with engaginc characters and interesting themes, I haven't seen much of it in any of the trailers so far.

3. Arbitrage and base rates again: very few games on metacritic score above 90, compared to the number which score above 80. Conditional on a random game scoring 80+, the chance that it would also land above 90 are probably only like one-fifth, based on eyeballing this graph:


And yet, this market is at 27%, which is about two-thirds the 39% of this other market about whether Hogwarts legacy will land above 80: https://manifold.markets/Ansambel/hogwarts-legacy-metascore-will-be-a

For all these reasons, I think Hogwarts Legacy probably has less than a 10% chance of scoring 90+ on metacritic.

predicted NO

@JacksonWagner I also think reviewers will also be influenced by J. K. Rowling's views on trans people when reviewing the game.

Hogwart