American politics 2023: The statutory debt ceiling is raised?
resolved Jun 11

This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.

Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.

Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

If Biden invokes the 14th Amendment to exceed the debt ceiling, will the action be successfully challenged in court?
DanMan314 avatarDan
42% chance
Will Joe Biden get impeached by the House?
Akzzz123 avatarAK
15% chance
Will the 118th Congress vote on an article of impeachment against Joe Biden?
Will Joe Biden invoke the 14th Amendment to issue debt over the ceiling?
KitRedgrave avatarKit Redgrave
6% chance
If the House holds a vote to impeach Joe Biden, how many Republicans will vote against impeachment?
Conditional on the threat of a government shutdown, will president Biden “mint the coin?"
LarsDoucet avatarLars Doucet
9% chance
If the House holds a vote to impeach Joe Biden, will at least one Democrat vote in favor of impeachment?
evergreenemily avatarevergreen
7% chance
Will Merrick Garland be impeached during the 118th Congress?
Will any wealth tax bill pass in the US Congress during Joe Biden’s presidential term?
How much student debt will be cleared by the Biden administration?
Will a discharge petition be used successfully to bring a debt ceiling increase to the House floor in 2023?
jack avatarJack
1% chance
Will Joe Biden be convicted in an impeachment trial in the United States Senate?
Akzzz123 avatarAK
2% chance
Will the 47th President be impeached?
Gigacasting avatarGigacasting
35% chance
How many votes will the Republican "abolish the IRS" house bill get?

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:
MayMeta avatar
MayMetabought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@itsTomekK This should resolve YES, Matthew Yglesias confirmed that he indeed counts suspension as raising (unsurprisingly).

SuperTaxGenius avatar
Super Tax Genius

Was the debt ceiling raised? I believe it was suspended!

3 replies
MayMeta avatar
MayMetapredicted YES

@SuperTaxGenius There is an argument to be made, that suspension is a temporary "raise to infinity", which was the logic behind a bunch of similar markets.

Daniel_MC avatar
Danielbought Ṁ1 of NO
MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchpredicted YES

@MayMeta tomek has a lot of markets to resolve

xyz avatar

@MayMeta I think these resolve based on what Matt Yglesias says at the end of the year

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch you can tell me which ones

MarcusAbramovitch avatar
Marcus Abramovitchbought Ṁ10,000 of YES

@itsTomekK this one, the Celtics one etc.

JimHays avatar
Jim Haysbought Ṁ50 of NO

While this could still resolve YES if the debt ceiling is reinstated this year, then raised, so far it has been suspended only, and not raised, which does not meet the requirements for YES.

12 replies
Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicted NO

@JimHays I suspect that Matt Yglesias is not going to be caring about the strict wording when deciding how this resolves, but that's a good point. I'd guess that 97% is about right?

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡predicted YES

@Gabrielle it shouldn't resolve YES yet?

JimHays avatar
Jim Hayspredicted NO

@itsTomekK The ceiling wasn’t raised. It was suspended, which while having a similar impact, is a distinct action. Most markets about the debt ceiling specified in the resolution criteria that raising or suspending the ceiling would count the same way, but this one didn’t.

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@JimHays Pretty sure this is included in what Yglesias meant by "raised". And I'll keep betting on it if others are less sure.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellebought Ṁ0 of YES

@jack I’m also pretty sure, but my pretty sure is 97%, so I’ll take the NO bet. 😃

MayMeta avatar
MayMetabought Ṁ5,300 of YES

@Gabrielle Someone can always reach out to Matthew Yglesias and ask him directly if he considers the debt limit suspension to be a special case of a debt limit raise, and if he says yes, then there will be absolutely no reason to keep this market opened for the rest of the year.

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicted NO

@MayMeta Agreed, if he were to confirm either way then we could resolve early.

SemioticRivalry avatar
Semiotic Rivalrypredicted NO

@Gabrielle Do these markets resolve based off Matt's judgement or Tomek's?

Gabrielle avatar
Gabriellepredicted NO

@SemioticRivalry I assumed Matt’s, but it’s up to Tomek.

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡predicted YES

@Gabrielle I would rather wait for the consensus. As I understand, the statutory debt ceiling was not raised - which still can be confirmed by ie. paying off some debt and ending the suspension, reverting back to old debt ceiling, right?

jack avatar
Jackbought Ṁ0 of YES

The way I look at it, suspension is equivalent to temporarily raising it to infinity for the next two years.

@itsTomekK There is no realistic world in which they would end the suspension early; and if they did, there's no particular reason to revert to the old debt ceiling rather than any other number.

SuperTaxGenius avatar
Super Tax Geniuspredicted NO

@itsTomekK I specifically bet more on this market because it did not include suspension.

ChristopherRandles avatar
Christopher Randles

What happens on suspension?