This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
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3.00@itsTomekK This should resolve YES, Matthew Yglesias confirmed that he indeed counts suspension as raising (unsurprisingly).
@SuperTaxGenius There is an argument to be made, that suspension is a temporary "raise to infinity", which was the logic behind a bunch of similar markets.
Yep, this is exactly how I operationalized https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised.
FWIW other platforms all included suspension too: https://kalshi.com/markets/dceil/debt-ceiling-hike#dceil-23dec31
@itsTomekK this should resolve to YES https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/03/politics/biden-signs-debt-ceiling-deal/index.html
@JimHays I suspect that Matt Yglesias is not going to be caring about the strict wording when deciding how this resolves, but that's a good point. I'd guess that 97% is about right?
@itsTomekK The ceiling wasn’t raised. It was suspended, which while having a similar impact, is a distinct action. Most markets about the debt ceiling specified in the resolution criteria that raising or suspending the ceiling would count the same way, but this one didn’t.
@JimHays Pretty sure this is included in what Yglesias meant by "raised". And I'll keep betting on it if others are less sure.
@Gabrielle Someone can always reach out to Matthew Yglesias and ask him directly if he considers the debt limit suspension to be a special case of a debt limit raise, and if he says yes, then there will be absolutely no reason to keep this market opened for the rest of the year.
@Gabrielle I would rather wait for the consensus. As I understand, the statutory debt ceiling was not raised - which still can be confirmed by ie. paying off some debt and ending the suspension, reverting back to old debt ceiling, right?
The way I look at it, suspension is equivalent to temporarily raising it to infinity for the next two years.
@itsTomekK There is no realistic world in which they would end the suspension early; and if they did, there's no particular reason to revert to the old debt ceiling rather than any other number.
@itsTomekK I specifically bet more on this market because it did not include suspension.