This market is part of series of predictions made by Matthew Yglesias. Please check the group to bet on them all.
Matthew Yglesias is a liberal American blogger and journalist who writes about economics and politics. He publishes the Substack newsletter Slow Boring.
Recently he made many predictions on American politics events, published on
https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-predictions-for-2023:
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@itsTomekK This should resolve YES, Matthew Yglesias confirmed that he indeed counts suspension as raising (unsurprisingly).
@SuperTaxGenius There is an argument to be made, that suspension is a temporary "raise to infinity", which was the logic behind a bunch of similar markets.
Yep, this is exactly how I operationalized https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised.
FWIW other platforms all included suspension too: https://kalshi.com/markets/dceil/debt-ceiling-hike#dceil-23dec31
@itsTomekK this should resolve to YES https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/03/politics/biden-signs-debt-ceiling-deal/index.html
While this could still resolve YES if the debt ceiling is reinstated this year, then raised, so far it has been suspended only, and not raised, which does not meet the requirements for YES.
@itsTomekK The ceiling wasn’t raised. It was suspended, which while having a similar impact, is a distinct action. Most markets about the debt ceiling specified in the resolution criteria that raising or suspending the ceiling would count the same way, but this one didn’t.
@Gabrielle Someone can always reach out to Matthew Yglesias and ask him directly if he considers the debt limit suspension to be a special case of a debt limit raise, and if he says yes, then there will be absolutely no reason to keep this market opened for the rest of the year.
@Gabrielle Do these markets resolve based off Matt's judgement or Tomek's?
@Gabrielle I would rather wait for the consensus. As I understand, the statutory debt ceiling was not raised - which still can be confirmed by ie. paying off some debt and ending the suspension, reverting back to old debt ceiling, right?
The way I look at it, suspension is equivalent to temporarily raising it to infinity for the next two years.
@itsTomekK There is no realistic world in which they would end the suspension early; and if they did, there's no particular reason to revert to the old debt ceiling rather than any other number.
@itsTomekK I specifically bet more on this market because it did not include suspension.
