vvv's calibration
Grade: D, Score: -9.63
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when vvv bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
70%
- Will anyone find my little glass frog?YESṀ50
- Will the total number of participants of any other Dark Rituals eclipse the participants of the Dark Manifold Ritual between 9:17-9:20pm at the Manifold party?NOṀ45
- Will there be 20+ creators in the "Top Creators" section of the group that houses markets for the Manifold party?NOṀ25
90%