Will taking annual MRIs of the smartest alignment researchers turn out alignment-relevant by 2033?
18
1kṀ8372034
7%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@ArnavBansal ha thanks! MRI alone wouldn’t be sufficient and assumes incomplete a priori knowledge with brain activity and any possible alignment output (based on what we know now)
I don't think MRIs are granular enough to even begin to implement the plan of "simulate the process of AI alignment researchers conducting such research".
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?
4% chance
Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?
38% chance
Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?
32% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
34% chance
Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026?
63% chance
Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?
81% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
52% chance
Will >= 1 alignment researcher/paper cite "maximum diffusion reinforcement learning" as alignment-relevant in 2025?
19% chance
Will a major AI alignment office (eg Constellation/Lightcone/HAIST) give out free piksters to alignment ppl by EOY 2027?
43% chance
Conditional on not having died from unaligned AGI, I consider myself a full time alignment researcher by the end of 2030
34% chance