Will Rep. Dean Phillips win at least one state in the 2024 Democratic primaries?
Will Rep. Dean Phillips win at least one state in the 2024 Democratic primaries?
111
1kṀ19k
resolved Jul 22
Resolved
NO

US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ202
2Ṁ162
3Ṁ134
4Ṁ97
5Ṁ54

People are also trading


Sort by:
11mo

@StochasticParrot resolves NO (per Phillips not even being a color on this map)

1y

Pretty misleading for Yang to claim that he's "up to 21%" in New Hampshire when that number comes from a poll that was a massive outlier.

reposted 1y

Dean Phillips is the strongest Democrat running against Joe Biden. Andrew Yang, Jason Calacanis, and others have been boosting his campaign, pointing out he's hit 21% in NH polling (although the same poll shows Biden's lead growing by 3%)

But Manifold Politics users know that he's unlikely to win any primary, let alone the presidency (< 2% chance)

1y

@cockathiel do US territories count? DC, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, etc?

1y

“Most likely Democratic primary voters plan to vote for President Joe Biden whether he is on the ballot or not, with little appetite for alternative candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Marianne Williamson.”

University of New Hampshire (Sept 22nd)

The fundamentals say no to Phillips in NH, even with primary shenanigans leaving Biden off the ballot.

how did i not see this market until today :(

Can anyone explain why dean's even running? I don't get it.

1y

@jacksonpolack Apparently the Guardian can (I have not actually read the article, I just looked up Dean Phillips)

👍

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy