Will Gary Marcus's Brier Score of 2024+2025 predictions be lower than 0.50 by EOY2028?
Basic
1
Ṁ102029
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025
20% chance
Will Bryce Young finish in the top 20 in QBR in 2024?
10% chance
In 2026, will the largest AI-based commercial forecasting system (by revenue) have a platform-wide Brier score <0.1?
17% chance
Will nikola jurkovic have a higher Brier score than Ozzie Gooen on EITHER manifold or metaculus for year 2025?
50% chance
Will a basketball player score 45,000 points in the NBA by EOY 2035?
33% chance
Zvi Blind vs. Manifold 2024 ACX Predictions: Who Maximizes Brier Score? (% resolution)
3% chance
Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?
55% chance
Will the mean score for The Foundation Model Transparency Index be 50% or more by the end of 2025? (current: 37%)
52% chance
Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?
73% chance
Will Bryan Johnson get 11.4T or higher MRI by EOY 2027?
55% chance