Will the mean score for The Foundation Model Transparency Index be 50% or more by the end of 2025? (current: 37%)

Question

The mean score is a just 37%. Yet, 82 of the indicators are satisfied by at least one developer, meaning that developers can significantly improve transparency by adopting best practices from their competitors.

[image]https://crfm.stanford.edu/fmti/

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 15% chance (3 traders, as of Dec 13, 2025).

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