Is average probability (upon resolution) of manifold.markets questions less than 50% for all questions settled in 2024

5

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resolved Oct 15

Resolved

YES

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Hard difficulty to resolve @mods

@mods I do not know how to fetch this data.

@Quroe not perfect but initial glance at https://manifold.markets/calibration indicates a general trend. resolving YES

Platform calibration

Manifold's overall track record

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This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Related questions

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

Which manifold.markets user will have the most questions asked about them by EOY 2025?

What percentage of current Manifold.Markets users asking questions that resolve in 2030 will close out their own post?

Will I have asked the 2nd most # of questions on manifold.markets questions by EOY2025?

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

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