Will Pieter Omtzigt exit Dutch national politics before February 2025?
Basic
9
Ṁ1836
resolved Feb 9
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Pieter Omtzigt doesn't occupy any national political office at midnight of January 31st 2025. The positions that count are: (Prime) ministers, state secretaries, chairs of the house or senate, and members of the house or senate. Demissionary positions count.

Resolves NO if Omtzigt is absent for less than 40% of his duties throughout the year, and resolves YES if he is absent for more than 90%. If Omtzigt is absent from between 40% and 90% of his duties throughout the year, this question resolves to that percentage.

(I have no precise definition for the percentage absence for now and will use my own judgment*).

If Omtzigt is present on January 31st, the year is considered to run from February 1st 2024 until January 31st.

If Omtzigt is absent on January 31st, the market close date is delayed to September 3rd 2025 (the day after parliamentary summer recess ends) and the market resolves YES if he doesn't return by midnight September 2nd 2025. If he does return before then, 'the year' is considered to run from February 1st 2024 until his return and otherwise resolves normally.

I may resolve early based on Omtzigt's statements or blatant common sense. Dutch local time applies. I will not bet on this market except to bring it from 1% or less to 0% or from 99% or more to 100%.

*: Being involuntarily unable to perform his duties counts as absence. Not holding any national political office counts as absence. Scheduled parliamentary recess, weekends, and holidays with reasonable duration do not count as absence or presence. Reduced workload counts as partial absence.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ50
2Ṁ22
3Ṁ16
4Ṁ13
5Ṁ10
Sort by:

Ah, I was wondering whether this market would be resolved. I didn't invest for that reason.

@mods Creator's bio declares inactivity and an unlikelihood of resolving markets.

Question appears to resolve NO; Pieter Omtzigt was still a member of the Netherlands House of Representatives on January 31, 2025 (and still is today).

I note all humans holding positions on this question hold NO positions; only the Acceleration bot holds any YES position.

It is possibly arguable Pieter Omtzigt was "absent from his duties" enough (40%+ of the time) to fall under the resolution criteria for a percentage due to absences, which the creator left imprecisely defined and a matter for his own judgment. However, the Wikipedia account is that his "step back" ran from early September to late November in 2024, which is much less than 40% of the time from February 1, 2024 to January 31, 2025. Even counting nine-tenths of the time after the return as absence (as reduced workload counts as "partial absence" under the criteria) one can't reach 40% of the total calendar time.

The remaining uncertainty left is one of whether "[s]cheduled parliamentary recess, weekends, and holidays" (which "do no count as absence or presence") were sufficiently concentrated in the periods before and/or after Omtzigt's absence that, in combination with a sufficiently harsh judgment about reduced workload counting as absence, one can reduce Omtzigt's "presence" such that he was absent for 40% or more of the time.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules