Will I see today?
8
1kṀ9863
resolved Mar 14
Resolved
N/A

Resolves YES if I see anything other than my eyelids (that is, if I open my eyes, even if by just 5%)

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This was still in the mod queue, indicating maybe people thought it needed another look, so I reviewed it again.

It looks like traders were concerned by the lack of evidence and planning. While a lot of Manifold does run toward caveat emptor, there are actually some rules. The biggest 'rule' on the entire site, and the one metric you aren't allowed to mess around with, is profit. As a creator, you'll get the worst response any time your actions affect profit, and if it boosts your own profit specifically, people will be pretty upset.

In addition to the rule from the Mod Guidelines quoted below, the Guidance for running a market says markets "designed to defraud users" can also be marked N/A. I'm not saying this market was designed to defraud users, but it is at least close.

If this was the only 'offense' on your account history, I think the original resolution would have stayed in place, but there have been some other concerns including the other market that resolved prematurely. The guidelines seem to indicate that leaving the N/A resolution is appropriate in this case.

If you repeat the same market with more explanation of how you'll accomplish the feat and more proof, it could probably stand, but a market like this is going to be very suspicious if it looks like you used it specifically to increase your own profit or defraud users.

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I strongly encourage you to review the entire Community Guidelines to make sure your future actions stay well within the boundaries. Remember, these are "guidelines" not "rules", so mods and the admin team will probably make rulings on vibes if they feel you've skirted the letter of the law but violated the spirit of them.

The guidelines can be found here:

https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Community-Guidelines-2b986d33f0c646478d4921667c272f21

Note that the 'general expectations' on the first page are really important and a core part of Manifold! It's okay to have fun, but it's generally not okay to go around hitting every loophole. People do actually get banned for that.

@mods I would like to make an appeal. This market's resolution was changed from NO to N/A, even though I was able to complete the challenge of keeping my eyes closed for an entire day. Can anyone please change it back to NO?

@Ziddletwix Can you help, please?

@inaccessibles I responded on the main thread

@bagelfan I provided evidence on how I was able to perform actions that you assumed could not be done wihout seeing (I let someone else do it for me). You should undo the resolution of N/A and change it back to the correct resolution of NO

@inaccessibles I responded on the main thread

@inaccessibles what's going on here? This market and another market of yours seem highly suspicious.

@inaccessibles Can you share how you were able to bet and comment on this and other markets while your eyes were completely closed?

Hey @inaccessibles if you can't provide any evidence that you completed this challenge then it seems overwhelmingly likely that this was just a fraudulent market and I will change it to N/A.

@bagelfan How I did it is that I got someone else to bet and comment on this and other markets for me. Please resolve this back to NO

@bagelfan Ok the other market was actually my fault, but this situation has no relation to the other situation

@inaccessibles Obviously I have no way of knowing whether this happened or not, but I'm not really convinced by this evidence. You supposedly did an (extremely) hard challenge, yet posted nothing about how you did it until now even when asked by traders, which is pretty suspicious.

I bring up the other market because based on the mod guidelines,

Judging by your 10k limit order it seems like you had planned to misresolve the other market from the beginning.

I'm happy to reconsider if you can give me more evidence that you did keep your eyes closed the whole day. For now though, my thinking is that either you and someone else teamed up for a day and you managed to keep your eyes closed while going through daily activities and had the other person help you use Manifold as usual (which would be pretty tedious) or you simply faked the whole thing. Especially given you made a different market which was fraudulent the latter option seems much more likely.

Also, could we keep discussion about this in this thread? You've been pinging me, @mods and other various mods in many different places and also advertised a market you made about this in a totally unrelated market, which is against the comment guidelines. I do apologize for not responding sooner though.

@bagelfan I'm sorry for pinging so many times.

I was not planning to misresolve the other market. My 10k limit order was intended to push the market to where I thought it should be, and I didn't want it to actually be filled. I didn't make a similar order in Martin Randall's market because it would almost certainly be filled, leaving me with a really low amount of mana until it is returned through loans at a slow rate (even though I would win in the long run). The reason I made the 10k order in my own market was because I predicted that nobody will actually fill it, and it was intended as an intimidation (I certainly wouldn't bet tons against someone else in their own market, unless that person has a really good reputation).

When I was at a really low mana balance, I resolved the other market to YES because I wanted to quickly obtain mana. I forgot that Martin Randall's market description required a "supermajority consensus". Recently, I recognized my error and made sure not to make another mistake like this one.

This market's original resolution was legitimate, however. Before the start of the day of the challenge, I logged in to my account on someone else's device. That person doesn't know my credentials, but could use my account temporarily. During the challenge day, they would tell me what was happening on Manifold, and I would tell them what bets and comments to make. They also made some decisions by themselves. I did intend to make a lot of profit on this market, and designed it so that I could (for example, I didn't say that I would not trade in this market, like I did with some of my other markets)

@bagelfan I'm done editing now, so see if you can reconsider. Thank you for your time.

@inaccessibles Your account had a remarkable amount on activity on March 2 that "someone else" allegedly performed for you. I wonder whether Manifold's logs would corroborate that a different device was used.

@jcb If such logs exist, they will show a different device being used.

bought Ṁ2,000 NO

can't believe this is the highest profit he's ever made also

Edit: nvm this is not his highest profit, I realized I had the "Open" filter on

There's still a free 4% of the market to take

@inaccessibles Are you actually unable to open your eyes, or are you blind? Or is this a wager to see if you can do this as a regularly-abled person?

@Quroe The last option

@inaccessibles Clever. 😄

@inaccessibles I have no stake in this market, so I don't care much either way, but how did you like and reply to my comment 9 hours ago if you could not see?

bought Ṁ10 NO

He created this question. Then the triffids came.

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