What marble will win the 2024 JMR Marble Sand Rally? [Season 7]

Basic

Ṁ1622

resolved Aug 10

ALL

Race 6 aired

Race 7 aired

Race 8

Race 9

100%48%

Blue Moon

0.9%

Reflektor

22%

Pollo Loco

0.6%

Crazy Cat's Eye

0.8%

Ducktape

19%

Dragon's Egg

0.6%

Superball

0.6%

Grasshopper

1.0%

Slimer

0.6%

Silver Bolt

0.9%

Blizzard Blaster

0.5%

Red Number 3

0.6%

Nemo

0.5%

White Widow

0.6%

Amethyst

0.6%

Blazing Fireball

0.6%

Lollipop

0.6%

Ghost Plasma

0.6%

Phoenix

0.6%

Comet

Jelle's Marble Runs is a YouTube channel that produces sport parodies involving marbles, with a kayfabe in which the commentator (Greg Woods) and fans pretend that the marbles are sentient athletes. Sand Marble Rally is a long-running series - this is the seventh season - where the marbles roll on an outdoor track made of sand (or snow, sometimes). Which marble athlete will win the most points? Bet! (Ties broken by position countback - most golds, then most silvers, then most bronzes, etc.)

As I create this, Round 5 (of 10) was just released on July 17th. The final round is expected to release on August 3rd. Please check the current standings at the end of the most recent video or on the wiki before betting: it's not random chance, since some rounds have already been played!

Marble Rally Season 7

Marble Rally Season 7 will be the seventh season of Marble Rally. It will begin on 29 June 2024 and will end on 31 July 2024. Slimer is the defending champion. The number of competitors was reverted to 20 marbles as in Season 5 after being reduced to 16 in Season 6. Qualifiying had a slight...

This is a trial run to see if there's interest in betting on Jelle's Marble Runs - I plan to run a question on future JMR series this year (Marbula One, Marble League, etc) but I simply forgot to create one for this until now! Sorry 😭

Season 6 also had a Manifold question - for those results, look here.

Get

1,000

and

1.00

25 Comments

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what a finish!

I'm conflicted about these markets. I love the sport. I want to bet. But I also don't want spoilers if I don't watch it as a premier.

I think that's just natural for any sports-based market, unfortunately. I don't know how I could fix that - would you prefer if I waited to resolve the market next time?

No, do your thing. I can't eat my cake and still have cake.

reposted

And that's a wrap!

See you soon for Marbula One betting!

reposted

One hour left until market close!

bought Ṁ10 Blue Moon YES

Race 9 was a good one! I missed it yesterday but I've corrected the market now. Only Blue Moon, Dragon's Egg, and Lollipop are in contention going into the final race!

reposted

Race 8! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BSCZj9O-qss

opened a Ṁ500 Amethyst NO at 1.0% order

absolutely terrible showing by blue moon today. reflektor also had a bad match. but it looks like dragon egg's time to shine! let's see if that marble can keep the momentum up through the finish of the series

Races delayed. Close date changed, @traders.

sold Ṁ1 Ducktape YES

I decided to sell all my shares in the market. I did not realize it would completely ruin the percents. Somebody should fix them.

It is for this reason I have decided to not bet in future markets I create

New sim. Note that "0.00%" here is rounded, real chance is somewhere in the "to write out this percent would require precision to the trillionths" range.

Working on a new sim. It is now mathematically impossible for Comet to win. :(

reposted

Race 7 is out!

bought Ṁ5 Dragon's Egg YES

excellent moves by lollipop today but I don't think it'll be able to sustain that kind of action. another decent showing by blue moon, dragon's egg, and pollo loco makes it a tight top 4!

reposted

Race 7 in 24 hours!

added a "Marble Sports" tag just in case anybody creates non-Jelle's marble markets, but I sure know that I won't be doing that any time soon (you wouldn't catch me dead caring about glasscar lol)

I'm likely to run some markets for this come M1 and ML, too, bc this is too much fun. I don't wanna step on your toes, though, so lmk when you've gotten your big ones out of the way when the time comes

@Stralor i have a couple ideas for markets but when the time comes we can hash this out over discord or something. right now my plan is to have M1 markets for winning team and winning individual, + ML markets for winning team and winning showdown, and potentially a market on which teams will qualify for ML?

sounds good! I'd probably do more prop-bet-like markets so it works for me!

reposted

new sim (n=250,000)
Reflektor - 36%
Blue Moon - 26%
Dragon's Egg - 13%
Blizzard Blaster - 6.1%
Crazy Cat's Eye - 5.3%
Ducktape - 2.9%
Pollo Loco - 2.9%
Superball - 2.5%
Slimer - 1.5%
[Tie]* - 1.4%
Grasshopper - 1.1%
[Other] - 1.6%

*(Ties are broken by position countback, which I could probably add to my simulation but I'm too lazy to do so.)

Looks like I'll need to delay the close a little

Currently set to August 3 at 2 PM, my intention is to have the market close when Race 10 comes out

RACE 6 OUT https://youtu.be/ZkQ9gsfhpDA

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