Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the individual who is officially elected as the next pope by the College of Cardinals during the upcoming papal conclave. Each option corresponds to a specific candidate; if that candidate is elected, their option will resolve to "Yes." If a candidate is not elected, their option will resolve to "No." If the elected pope is not among the listed options, the "Other person" option will resolve to "Yes," and all other options will resolve to "No."

Background:

Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, the Catholic Church is preparing for a conclave to elect his successor. The conclave, held in the Sistine Chapel, involves cardinals under 80 years old voting in rounds until one candidate secures a two-thirds majority. The process is secretive, with ballots burned after each round: black smoke indicates no decision, while white smoke signals the election of a new pope. (ft.com)

Candidate Information:

1. Pietro Parolin: An Italian cardinal who has served as the Vatican's Secretary of State since 2013. He has extensive diplomatic experience, including roles in Nigeria, Mexico, and Venezuela. (en.wikipedia.org)

2. Luis Antonio Tagle: A Filipino cardinal known for his progressive views and media presence. He has been considered a potential successor due to his inclusive approach and connection with the global Catholic community. (time.com)

3. Matteo Zuppi: An Italian cardinal recognized for his pastoral work and commitment to social issues. He is viewed as a candidate who could continue the Church's focus on inclusivity and outreach. (time.com)

4. Péter Erdő: A Hungarian cardinal with a conservative theological stance. He has been mentioned as a potential candidate representing traditional values within the Church. (time.com)

5. Pierbattista Pizzaballa: An Italian cardinal who has served as the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. His experience in the Middle East and interfaith dialogue are notable aspects of his candidacy.

6. Peter Turkson: A Ghanaian cardinal known for his work on social justice and economic issues. He has been a prominent voice on global challenges and is considered a potential candidate from Africa. (theweek.com)

7. Raymond Burke: An American cardinal recognized for his conservative views and emphasis on traditional liturgy. He has been a vocal critic of some modernizing trends within the Church.

8. Baldassare Reina: An Italian bishop who has served in various capacities within the Church. His inclusion reflects the broad range of potential candidates considered for the papacy.

9. Fridolin Ambongo Besungu: A Congolese cardinal known for his advocacy on social issues and environmental concerns. He represents the growing influence of the African Church. (elpais.com)

10. Gerhard Müller: A German cardinal who has served as the Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith. He is known for his theological scholarship and conservative positions.

11. Jean-Marc Aveline: A French cardinal recognized for his work in interfaith dialogue and pastoral care. His experience reflects the Church's engagement with diverse communities.

12. Malcolm Ranjith: A Sri Lankan cardinal who has served in various diplomatic and pastoral roles. He is known for his commitment to traditional liturgy and Church teachings.

13. Mario Grech: A Maltese cardinal who has been involved in synodal processes within the Church. His work emphasizes collegiality and consultation.

14. Reinhard Marx: A German cardinal known for his progressive views on social issues and economic justice. He has been a prominent figure in discussions on Church reform.

15. Robert Prevost: An American cardinal who has served in various leadership roles within the Church. His experience includes work in Latin America and the United States.

16. Wim Eijk: A Dutch cardinal recognized for his conservative theological positions. He has been involved in bioethics and medical ethics discussions within the Church.

Considerations:

The upcoming conclave is notable for its diverse composition, with 135 eligible cardinal electors from 71 countries. This reflects the global nature of the Church and may influence the selection process. (elpais.com)

Recent Developments in the Papal Succession Process:

• How does the Catholic Church choose its new leader?

• How a New Pope Is Chosen-and Who It Could Be

• Who will be the next pope? Some hints to watch for