Will definitive evidence emerge that Justin Trudeau is actually Fidel Castro’s biological son?
65
223
1.2k
2051
4%
chance

I'm thinking along the lines of a DNA test or other definitive official documentation.

Feb 10, 10:08pm: Will definitive evidence emerge that Justin Trudeau’s son is actually Fidel Castro’s biological son? → Will definitive evidence emerge that Justin Trudeau is actually Fidel Castro’s biological son?

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predicts NO

Why is this at 9%?

predicts YES

@Nikola are you wondering if 9% is too low, or too high?

predicts NO

@firstuserhere It seems too high for me. After a quick search on the internet, all I'm getting is a bunch of conspiracy websites claiming this. Is there a credible source for this that people are considering when forecasting this?

predicts NO
predicts YES

@Nikola Snopes' analysis here is very shoddy.

ain't no way i'm locking up money for *checks details* 28 years

predicts YES

@JohnHoeksema that's what loans do! You get 2%(?) of your money back daily so that you can invest in long term markets and still have some Ṁ

@firstuserhere ooh how does that work? do certain questions auto-loan Ṁ after bets to incentivize betting?

predicts YES

@JohnHoeksema I believe it is for all the markets, at midnight, you get back 2% of the total amount that you've invested.

From manifold's description example:


For example, if you bet Ṁ1000 on "Will I become a millionare?", you will get Ṁ20 back tomorrow.Previous loans count against your total bet amount. So on the next day, you would get back 2% of Ṁ(1000 - 20) =Ṁ19.6.

bought Ṁ25 of NO

I wish. But no

O wait maybe I got this wrong let me see

@ian I meany he IS fidel castro’s son

Whoa!! Betting YES out of pure hope!!

@BTE Changed the title there in case you want to change your bet

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@ian Holy shit that is EVEN BETTER!!! Perhaps it would make the "black face" scandel less of a big deal lol.