I just created a new graph that shows daily active users by topic at https://manifold.markets/stats. It only shows topics with at least 50 active users. I will resolve YES any topic that has at least 500 DAUs in the last week of january.
I will not resolve YES to any tag that is a mispelling or otherwise basically the same tag as another, more popular tag in an attempt to manipulate this market. For example, someone creates a tag called 'Political markets' in the last week and attaches it to some markets that deliver it 500 DAUs. In that case the we'll just merge the tag with Politics.
1,000
3.00@Bayesian ian's comment below says "in the last week of January, do any of these topics hit 500 or above DAUs?". if so, fwiw US politics already hit 500 DAU during the final week, so will be YES. i'm just not betting it up all the way because there's a chance i'm misinterpreting and it's supposed to avg 500 DAUs (since the description is less clear, whereas the comment quote seems clear that it just needs to be >500 on one day)
@Ziddletwix hmmm well I didn't remember that when i came back to the market to bet so you're probably right
@Bayesian yeah January is looking optimistic now. Will be interesting to see what happens when we start up the normie/sweeps forward app
@traders does it change your trades now that i've set the resolution to be those topics still popular at the end of january?
@Ziddletwix Ah good question, I think it should be sth like: in the last week of January, do any of these topics hit 500 or above DAUs?