What topics on Manifold will have at least 500 DAU at end of January 2025?
๐Ÿ’Ž
Premium
17
แน€94k
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
YES
Politics
Resolved
YES
US Politics
Resolved
NO
AI
Resolved
NO
๐Ÿฟ Entertainment and Pop Culture
Resolved
NO
Sports
Resolved
NO
Esports
Resolved
NO
Elon Musk
Resolved
NO
Crypto
Resolved
NO
Economics
Resolved
NO
Technology
Resolved
NO
NBA
Resolved
NO
NFL
Resolved
NO
Trump
Resolved
NO
Trump's Second Term
Resolved
NO
Republican Party
Resolved
NO
2024 US Presidential Election
Resolved
NO
Cycling

I just created a new graph that shows daily active users by topic at https://manifold.markets/stats. It only shows topics with at least 50 active users. I will resolve YES any topic that has at least 500 DAUs in the last week of january.

I will not resolve YES to any tag that is a mispelling or otherwise basically the same tag as another, more popular tag in an attempt to manipulate this market. For example, someone creates a tag called 'Political markets' in the last week and attaches it to some markets that deliver it 500 DAUs. In that case the we'll just merge the tag with Politics.

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opened aแน€1,000 YES at 58% order

@Bayesian ian's comment below says "in the last week of January, do any of these topics hit 500 or above DAUs?". if so, fwiw US politics already hit 500 DAU during the final week, so will be YES. i'm just not betting it up all the way because there's a chance i'm misinterpreting and it's supposed to avg 500 DAUs (since the description is less clear, whereas the comment quote seems clear that it just needs to be >500 on one day)

@Ziddletwix hmmm well I didn't remember that when i came back to the market to bet so you're probably right

bought แน€100 NO

rip

@Bayesian ๐Ÿ˜ข

@Bayesian yeah January is looking optimistic now. Will be interesting to see what happens when we start up the normie/sweeps forward app

bought แน€100 NO

@ian oh yeah true

@traders I made the graph prettier

@traders does it change your trades now that i've set the resolution to be those topics still popular at the end of january?

bought แน€150 NO

sweet feature! love this!

i assume this is about the DAU on same day at end of January 2025? (or if it's "anytime before then", some can already resolve YES?)

@Ziddletwix Ah good question, I think it should be sth like: in the last week of January, do any of these topics hit 500 or above DAUs?

@ian That makes sense to me! Seems to match the spirit of the question

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