What % of new markets will be created in the next month compared to the previous month?

10

8

Ṁ155

Ṁ100

resolved Aug 15

Resolved as

52%

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Jun 23, 2:08pm: What is the % of markets impact to removing free daily markets? Jun 23, 2:09pm: conditional on free markets not returning Jun 29, 4:41pm: I'll soon be adding other ways to earn bonus M$ so I think I should probably resolve this market based on extrapolating the rate of market creation before the bonuses are added.

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

Will this market have a greater number of traders than percentage odds by June 2024?

In March, 41% of newly created markets were long term (close date after 2024). In May, will that shrink to <33%?

What percentage of the way through 2024 will this market resolve?

Will the number of unresolved markets that have been closed for more than a month be less than 100 before February?

"The Market" 1 year: Will the average probability of this market be >50%?

HN Hiring Trends: What percent of "hiring"+"looking" posts will be "hiring" in the following months?

Within one month after Pivot, will I create a market, which generates enough resource to open a new market?

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ4
2		Ṁ4
3		Ṁ2

Sort by:

predicted NO

@ian any update on resolution here? :)

predicted YES

@MattP @ian Looks like final resolution should be 675/1284 = 52%

@wasabipesto This is a great system because it ended the spam and rewarded the rentiers (like me).

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Projected 6/24-7/23 numbers are now at 567/1284 = 44%

After running some numbers, the previous month (5/24-6/23) had 1284 markets created (1034 free + 250 paid). This month (6/24-7/23) has had 32 so far, extrapolating to the end gives us ~350. This gives us around 27%, so take that how you will.

predicted NO

@wasabipesto the real number is closer to 90%. Only four markets created in past 24 hours.

predicted YES

@wasabipesto These are great stats, tipped you!

I also just made a similar market: https://manifold.markets/jack/how-many-markets-will-be-created-ne

Depends on if the free markets are back or not. If not, 90% drop.

Related in Free Markets

Will I live to be 200 years old?

Have I intellectually outpaced Destiny?

See more Free Markets questions

More related questions

Will this market have a greater number of traders than percentage odds by June 2024?

-14% 1d30% chance

In March, 41% of newly created markets were long term (close date after 2024). In May, will that shrink to <33%?

What percentage of the way through 2024 will this market resolve?

Will the number of unresolved markets that have been closed for more than a month be less than 100 before February?

"The Market" 1 year: Will the average probability of this market be >50%?

HN Hiring Trends: What percent of "hiring"+"looking" posts will be "hiring" in the following months?

Within one month after Pivot, will I create a market, which generates enough resource to open a new market?

Free Markets questions

Will I live to be 200 years old?

Have I intellectually outpaced Destiny?

Related questions

Will this market have a greater number of traders than percentage odds by June 2024?

"The Market" 1 year: Will the average probability of this market be >50%?

In March, 41% of newly created markets were long term (close date after 2024). In May, will that shrink to <33%?

HN Hiring Trends: What percent of "hiring"+"looking" posts will be "hiring" in the following months?

What percentage of the way through 2024 will this market resolve?

Within one month after Pivot, will I create a market, which generates enough resource to open a new market?

Will the number of unresolved markets that have been closed for more than a month be less than 100 before February?